Net delegates will break perhaps 2 higher than expected, at 12. I'll update in the a.m.
THEY CAME OUT TO VOTE - 'SUPPRESSION CRITICISM' MISSES
Turnout was strong, but not nearly as thundering as what happened in Indiana. From that perspectives, WV is as eye-catching as Maine and Virgina. We've been sort-of thinking that the close race and the Obama-phenomenon have been combining to create strong turnouts. But those are turned upside down in WV, so ... who knows.
Clearly, no one was suppressed by "the pundits" and "the media". A long while back, I wondered if Dems were going to 'vote the underdog' the entire way through 'the process'.
CHANCE AT A DECISIVE, VISIBLE LEAD FOR HILLARY IS SLIM
Still, Clinton comes away with about +147K votes, which is higher than the projected +134. A major share of the vote went to Edwards (7%), who was not in my projections at all.... Edwards is on the ballot in KY, but not any of the remaining races.
I've bumped up my turnout figures for OR and KY, just because, but only slightly because both are closed and WV was open.
Even with higher turnouts, Hillary will be hard pressed to catch-up just to Obama's unadjusted figures. She'd have to blow-out Kentucky (35% margins) and deliver a standstill in Oregon.
After that, it's Puerto Rico, which is not a factor in the general election. The offset from the caucuses is in favor of Obama, even if every single registered Democrat voted in PR and she took the territory by 20%... (PR is an open primary, though, so who knows what will happen).
It may not matter. With some luck, the delegate race could be won by Obama before Puerto Rico votes.
Table 1. Estimate of the Poplar Vote (no direct measure is available - the aggregate vote is not the popular vote)
| State | Obama | Clinton | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Primaries, States | 15,634,301 | 15,308,861 | 325,440 |
| MI, FL Adj; BHO=23% | 713,009 | 1,199,295 | -486,286 |
| memo: MI Adj: BHO=29% | 38,660 | ||
| Tally, adjusted: | 16,347,310 | 16,508,156 | -122,186 |
| Projections: | 776,830 | 823,621 | -46,791 |
| Subtotal, Tally & Projected | 17,124,140 | 17,331,777 | -168,977 |
| Caucuses, States & D.C. | 437,810 | 184,153 | 253,657 |
| IA, ME, NV, WA Adj | 253,948 | 186,934 | 67,013 |
| Tally: | 691,758 | 371,087 | 320,670 |
| Caucus-to-Primary Adj | 560,845 | ||
| Tally, adjusted: | 881,515 | ||
| Caucuses & Primaries, Territories | 19,371 | 10,070 | 9,301 |
| Projections (PR remains) | 768,800 | 1,153,200 | -384,400 |
| Subtotal, Tally & Projected | -375,099 | ||
| Grand Total | 337,439 |
JUST FOR FUN - ONE HOT CHILE PEPPER
Poblano:
