READING BETWEEN THE LINES DIGITS
Jay Cost says Obama is a statistical leap of faith:
We are on better ground when we are using the "old" Democratic coalition as a baseline for interpreting the primary results. We have a better sense of the voters we are looking for. The coalition the Obama campaign may hope to build has never existed before - so we do not know exactly which voters to look at just yet. Indeed, it may very well be that a new Obama coalition does exist right now - but the polling cross-tabs, which have been designed based upon experience with previous elections and old coalitions, are actually cutting through it, obscuring its presence.
I suspect that Obama and McCain are competing for the same set of swing voters. It's a real head-to-head.
Obama doesn't have a signature issue, quite yet...right?
