....Michigan about 2/3 baked. (Obama got both the 1/2 penalty and the more favorable allocation ...!).
Obama's magic number is now projected at 4.5 delegates, assuming Clinton nets 11 delegates from Puerto Rico and Obama nets 2 and 1 out of the other two races (assuming also that Obama gets the remaining Edwards delegate-votes).
Clinton will appeal, naturally. The question is whether it will just be a placemarker appeal or a vociferous one. If the supers do not shut-down the race decisively, she will fight for the "uncommitted" out of Michigan, possibly. It's unclear whether those already chosen for "Uncommitted" by Michigan will be vetted by the Obama campaign or not (it's not clear they were) ...
The new number is 2117 (there will only be 296 supers in the end, not 297).
| Projection1: | Days Until | Projected Margin Clinton over Obama | Clinton Net Pickup (Loss) Pledged | Clinton Net Pickup (Loss) Supers | Obama Magic # | Clinton Magic # | Elected Remaining |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | -39 | - | 368.5 | 509 | 408 | ||
| Guam | -29 | 0 | 366.5 | 507 | 404 | ||
| Indiana | -26 | 4 | 332.5 | 469 | 332 | ||
| North Carolina | -26 | -19 | 265.5 | 421 | 217 | ||
| West Virginia | -19 | 12 | 257.5 | 401 | 189 | ||
| Kentucky | -12 | 23 | 243.5 | 364 | 138 | ||
| Oregon | -12 | -10 | 212.5 | 343 | 86 | ||
| Michigan Adj | 50% | 5 | 183 | 308.5 | |||
| Florida Adj | 50% | 12.5 | 143 | 256 | |||
| Edwards, pledged | - | -18 | 125 | 256 | 332 | ||
| Supers, since NC | - | -60.5 | 55.5 | 247 | 217 | ||
| Puerto Rico | 0 | 20% | 11 | 33.5 | 214 | 31 | |
| Montana | 2 | -10% | -2 | 24.5 | 207 | 15 | |
| South Dakota | 2 | -10% | -1 | 16.5 | 200 | 0 | |
| Total: | - | 6.5* |
*The reduction to
Put another way, Clinton will need 192.5 delegates at the end of all these adjustments. There will be a projected 197, after adjusting for the Pelosi club and what is known about how the Fl, MI supers will split. That's a must-do capture rate of 97.7%.
WORSE CASE SCENARIO
As noted, the wildcard at this point is a fight for more out of Michigan, possibly.
Assuming a fight produced 100% seating for Michigan and Clinton persuaded 14 of the delegates pledged to "Uncommitted" to her camp (a net swing of 28). She'd still need 87% of all the remaining delegates, with a magic number of 179.
*Update and caveat: I haven't update the Pelosi club membership list since about two weeks ago. There are two supers who have since declared for Obama. Add two to the figures for Obama above, for net of 6.5
