Continue to ignore the RCP figures - they even show an "estimate" with no votes for Obama out of Michigan, which just conflicts with all common sense (clearly, at least one voter cast a ballot for BHO).
Here are my updated figures for the estimate of the popular vote (no direct observation of this quantity is possible).
As you can see, team Clinton will rely heavily on Puerto Rico, which is no indicator of the 'will of the people', as it relates to general election strength. To the extent they do, the caucus-to-primary adjustment becomes important. I've reviewed my figures for this. They are fairly robust. Tweaks might yield 520K instead of 560K ... probably not enough to matter.
Kentucky and Oregon remain in "projected" category, as the full vote there is not completed. (25 precincts in KY and another few percent in Oregon)..
| State | Obama | Clinton | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Primaries, States | 15,634,312 | 15,308,986 | 325,326 |
| MI, FL Adj; BHO=23% | 713,009 | 1,199,295 | -486,286 |
| memo: MI Adj: BHO=29% | 38,660 | ||
| Tally, adjusted: | 16,347,321 | 16,508,281 | -122,300 |
| Projections (KY, OR, MT, SD): | 692,548 | 811,264 | -118,716 |
| Subtotal, Tally & Projected | 17,039,869 | 17,319,545 | -241,016 |
| Caucuses, States & D.C. | 437,810 | 184,153 | 253,657 |
| IA, ME, NV, WA Adj | 253,948 | 186,934 | 67,013 |
| Tally: | 691,758 | 371,087 | 320,670 |
| Caucus-to-Primary Adj | 560,789 | ||
| Tally, adjusted: | 2,908,431 | 2,026,972 | 881,459 |
| Caucuses & Primaries, Territories | 19,371 | 10,070 | 9,301 |
| Projections (PR remains) | 768,800 | 1,153,200 | -384,400 |
| Subtotal, Tally & Projected | 788,171 | 1,163,270 | -375,099 |
| Grand Total | 20,736,472 | 20,509,787 | 265,344 |
Gory details, here [Zoho spreadsheet. printable].
