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Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Beyond Party

A reader writes to AS:

Sullivan, a Burkean by philosophy but a radical by temperament, is the most interesting critic of his former conservative allies, and I’ve learned a lot about conservatism agonistes from reading his blog. He says that conservatism isn’t about solving problems but about ...[blah, blah, blah]

I read Sullivan every day, partly to find out how far his disenchantment will carry him in the very strange direction of Obama-style uplift—how long his temperament will win out over his ideas.


There is absolutely no such thing as "compassionate conservatism", either, right? [AS once wrote something about the "core decency" of conservatism that made me wince.]

Not to be rude, but scientifically, we can help the reader out. The temper will last until the next election or thereabouts, statistically speaking. (Not that the die-hard liberals will be much better. Michael Kinsley wrote a while back about how we will love Obama for now, until it is time to skewer him. The Congress may shift more fully to Democratic control, but that doesn't mean it will amount to anything that can be led in one direction ...).

Meanwhile, you know, I agree with Douthat-comma-Ross that Hillary was after the Presidency, rather than some other bit part, because it is a good prize, currently.

At the same time, one has to sober that perception. The GOP will have left a large pile on the doorstep. The list is long:

  • War Criminals to prosecute or pardon
  • Finishing 90% of the haplessly rendered prosecution of our 'special' detainees
  • A fiscal legacy of imprudent tax cuts
  • Afghanistan (stretched so long with so little, it may be deformed)
  • Iraq (the day when everyone takes to the streets shouting "thank you" will never arrive, even during a next Presidency)
  • Mid-east conflict (failed in Lebanon, failed in I/P conflict)
  • Iran (simmering)
  • North Korea (unresolved)
  • Cuba (failed)
  • Venezuela (failed)
  • Trade enforcement in shambles as evidenced by growing trade imablance
  • Potholes at Homeland Security
  • A quadrillion dollar fence on the Mexican border that may not achieve its objective
  • A likely recession and inflationary pressures - based on markets for housing, credit, and oil (and nat gas) all out of whack, as well as other commodities
  • "Fine, deport, and detain" recessionary pressures just getting up a head of steam
  • Energy policy unarticulated and no idea for health care other than subsidies
  • An education policy that is as popular as "managed care"
So much would take even FDR through the ringer. An Obama Administration is just as likely to get swamped and lost. Anyone who sings "Happy Days Are Here Again" in January is wishing upon a star, mostly.

At most, the light at the end of the tunnel will have been turned back on.