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Wednesday, May 21, 2008

The Stuttering Democratic Party

WHEN WILL OBAMA BE PERMITTED TO DECLARE A VICTORY?

Obama couldn't say it last night, in front of the Iowa crowd that should have heard it and rightly so, because they were the voters who launched his improbable run on the White House.

Think of the moment that was taken from him and for what end.

I suppose it is not such a big deal, because there will be a coronation, called a "convention".

But, even so, when will he get to declare a victory?

You can see the headlines: "Mississippi add-on declares; Barack and Michelle privately celebrate random, unexpected nomination nod on airplane ... Carville says, 'Judas', again.".
June 3rd? Nothing will change on that date. He will still have an unassailable majority of pledged delegates and likely maintain his current lead in super-delegates.

On May 31st (the rules-committee meeting)? Nothing will change on that day either. His lead among the pledged delegates will continue to be unassailable, even under wildly optimistic settings for Hillary. If seated at 1/2 vote, the pool of "uncommitted" supers will increase by ... wait for it ... a mere 15 votes, because almost half of the named supers have declared already, one way or the other.

What's more, if Michigan, say, doesn't like a 1/2 vote ruling, can they take it up at the convention themselves?

BURNT-OUT END OF SCATTERED DAYS

So, when will Obama get to declare a victory? On some random night in June, maybe, when the final majority superdelegate ambles across the finish line?

You can see the headlines: "Mississippi add-on declares; Barack and Michelle celebrate random, unexpected nomination nod on airplane ...".

Or, are the Washington undeclareds going to stage a "vote-in". When? On June 3rd? Picture that. Clinton is winning a resounding victory in Puerto Rico, maybe 300,000 votes worth and the Washington party big-wigs are giving the night to Obama ... who has to share the night with Clinton's last-day "triumph".

EVERYONE, THE RULES WILL BE KNOWN ONLY AT THE END OF THE GAME

What a farce.

What good is coming from this confusion?

This is what happens when you run contests with the rules declared at the end or seen as "flexible" ...