According to NYT, there are still 115 supers yet to declare. (To be fair, that probably includes about 30 add-on delegates, yet to be named). Still...
Showing posts with label Delegate Math. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Delegate Math. Show all posts
Monday, June 9, 2008
Friday, June 6, 2008
Inside Team Obama: Seizing the Moment and Using Math
BEHIND HOPE, GEEKS
First pass seems to suggest an interesting windfall of both being in the right place at the right time and having the wherewithal to capture the flag, including a math expert at or near center stage.
Man and machine appear to have operated without much grit in the wheels, in a somewhat decentralized way. It's hard to say more at this time (books are being written, though).
WHO'S YOUR DADDY?
If you haven't been paying close attention, here are the folks, as fingered by TIME, because we might hear more these names:
Some — like chief strategist David Axelrod and adviser Valerie Jarrett — came from Chicago and had advised Obama in earlier races. Axelrod's business partner Plouffe had worked in former House Democratic leader Dick Gephardt's operation; deputy campaign manager Steve Hildebrand, who oversaw the field organization, had come from former Senate majority leader Tom Daschle's. Daschle's former chief of staff Pete Rouse served that same role in Obama's Senate office, from which the candidate also brought aboard communications director Robert Gibbs, who had briefly worked for John Kerry. Obama tapped the business world as well, filling key operational posts with executives who had worked for Orbitz [Kevin Malover?], McDonald's and other firms.
Here's AP on the delegate-math guy at the center of the snip-ship strategy:
The research effort was headed by Jeffrey Berman, Obama's press-shy national director of delegate operations. Berman, who also tracked delegates in former Rep. Dick Gephardt's presidential bids, spent the better part of 2007 analyzing delegate opportunities for Obama.....
A more subtle change was the distribution of delegates within each state. As part of the proportional system, Democrats award delegates based on statewide vote totals as well as results in individual congressional districts. The delegates, however, are not distributed evenly within a state, like they are in the Republican system.
Under Democratic rules, congressional districts with a history of strong support for Democratic candidates are rewarded with more delegates than districts that are more Republican. Some districts packed with Democratic voters can have as many as eight or nine delegates up for grabs, while more Republican districts in the same state have three or four.
The system is designed to benefit candidates who do well among loyal Democratic constituencies, and none is more loyal than black voters. ...
Just a note: the delegate-distribution is an interesting insight, so I highlight it, but the full impact of it doesn't seem large enough to say that it was anything more than just one among many contributing factors.
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
MontanaTurnout Exceptional, South Dakota, Sub-par
WOMEN MAKE ONE DIFFERENCE
Montana, a closed primary, broke through the number of voters that turned out for the Kerry election, which was already the largest of the past three at-bats for the state. Number of votes cast was up 4% from 2004.
The so-called youth vote stood at 14% of the quartiles used, which seems about average to my eyes (I don't have historical election results for MT).
Obama carried women 51-46.
On the other hand, South Dakota had lower than estimated turnout. Clinton carried women, 57-43 (she also carried the male vote, but the margin is so slight it's not easy to have confidence in the estimate).
Anyway, the updated totals for the whole race, in terms of an *estimate* of who got votes and how is below.
With such a large margin for Obama, one can now make the estimates for the caucus-to-primary adjustment much more stringent. You can take the haircuts all the way down so that Obama would not have won any of these states by margins greater than single-digits (except Hawaii and D.C.), and he'd still have picked up almost 140K from the adjustment, enough to maintain an overall lead ...
1. Updated with final results for OR, SD, and MT.
| Type of Contest | Obama | Clinton | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Primaries, States | 16,380,714 | 16,165,529 | 215,185 |
| MI, FL Adj; BHO=23% | 713,009 | 1,199,295 | -486,286 |
| MI Adj: BHO=29% | 38,660 | ||
| memo: MI Adj: BHO=35% | 32,712 | ||
| memo: MI Adj: BHO=35%, HRC=46% | 54,718 | ||
| MI Adj: BHO, write-ins | 19,444 | 19,444 | |
| Tally, adjusted: | 17,093,723 | 17,364,824 | -212,997 |
| Caucuses, States & D.C. | 437,810 | 184,153 | 253,657 |
| IA, ME, NV, WA Adj | 253,948 | 186,934 | 67,013 |
| Tally: | 691,758 | 371,087 | 320,670 |
| Caucus-to-Primary Adj | 519,544 | ||
| Subtotal, Tally, adjusted: | 2,774,281 | 1,934,066 | 840,215 |
| Caucuses & Primaries, Territories | 140,829 | 273,190 | -132,361 |
| memo: Puerto Rico | 121,458 | 263,120 | -141,662 |
| Subtotal, Tally & Projected | 140,829 | 273,190 | -132,361 |
| Grand Total | 20,008,834 | 19,572,080 | 494,857 |
Details: Zoho sheet, html, printable
Saturday, May 31, 2008
Florida - Now 7/8th Baked
Nothing is fully baked until the convention, but it appears Florida is on track with 1/2 votes for all delegates.
This gives Hillary 12.5 net pledged delegate-votes (assuming Edwards delegates all vote for Obama). She picks up about 7.5 delegate-votes from supers who have expressed a preference. The pool of available supers expands by a mere 15 delegates, or less than 10% of the approximately 189 remaining...
To give a sense for just how meaningless the "fight" is, Clinton's projected must-do percentage among remaining delegates drops from something near 98% to something near 91% ...
Friday, May 30, 2008
New Estimates - Nothing to See Here
Two new concepts to incorporate, while updating the figures: Markos suggested a methodology for estimating the popular vote, yesterday. Poblano suggests an estimate that uses exit poll data (I had used another source).
The most important take-away is that all figures relating to a "popular vote" in the nomination race are estimates, unlike the general election. (The second most important take-away is that estimates that show no "popular votes" for Obama out of Michigan are pablum, to be wholly ignored).
WHAT TO DO WITH THE NON-BINDING PRIMARY FIGURES?
Unlike Markos, I've completely discounted the votes from non-binding primaries. There seems to be no reason to believe that they are highly representative, precisely because they are non-binding. Because they are after-the-fact, they are not even straw-polls (if memory serves, Washington simply stopped counting the votes at circa 90% done, even). Texas, however, is a binding, combined primary-caucus state. Something could be done, possibly, but it would involve eliminating double-counting, a bridge too far.
BETTER EXIT POLL DATA FOR MICHIGAN
I've incorporated the alternative exit poll data. One has to judge between incorporating actual votes cast and how much adjusting to do. Of course, one could do the full adjustment, for both Michigan and Florida. That's too much of a departure, for me. However, there is a strong case to be made for adjusting the turnout for Florida and Michigan:
By contrast, Michigan's turnout in its unsanctioned Democratic primary was 594,398, or only 7.8 percent of its eligible voting age population. That is about three-and-a-half times less than it "should" have been, based on the patterns in Indiana, Ohio and Wisconsin.
Except that adjusting one without the other magnifies any bias already in the numbers.
Clinton gets Ricky Martin...Last, there appears to be better info floating around to help estimate Puerto Rico turnout. The margins I have seem reasonable, but the turnout could be as much as half of what I've conservatively estimated. If so, there is little convincing chance that Hillary comes out a leader in the popular vote estimate. I like to be sure of these things, before continuing on.
Despite these expert estimates, I'm not changing my guesses, for now, which are based on the number of people who voted in the race for the Governor last time (the primary in Puerto Rico is an open primary) and the theory that Bill and Hill could convince a lot that their vote really counts. At 500K, officials are expecting less than 1/3 of my estimate, so I'm very conservative ...
1. Only estimates for the popular vote can be made (no direct observation possible). Updates for Kentucky, Oregon, and various other adjusted/finalized figures.
| State | Obama | Clinton | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Primaries, States | 15,862,339 | 15,778,397 | 83,942 |
| MI, FL Adj; BHO=23% | 713,009 | 1,199,295 | -486,286 |
| MI Adj: BHO=29% | 38,660 | ||
| memo: MI Adj: BHO=35%* | 32,712 | ||
| memo: MI Adj: BHO=35%, HRC=46%* | 54,718 | ||
| Tally, adjusted: | 16,575,348 | 16,977,692 | -363,684 |
| Projections (OR, MT, SD): | 491,517 | 357,083 | 134,434 |
| Subtotal, Tally & Projected | 17,066,865 | 17,334,775 | -229,250 |
| Caucuses, States & D.C. | 437,810 | 184,153 | 253,657 |
| IA, ME, NV, WA Adj | 253,948 | 186,934 | 67,013 |
| Tally: | 691,758 | 371,087 | 320,670 |
| Caucus-to-Primary Adj | 560,789 | ||
| Subtotal, Tally, adjusted: | 2,908,431 | 2,026,972 | 881,459 |
| Caucuses & Primaries, Territories | 19,371 | 10,070 | 9,301 |
| Projections (PR remains) | 768,800 | 1,153,200 | -384,400 |
| Subtotal, Tally & Projected | 788,171 | 1,163,270 | -375,099 |
| Grand Total | 20,763,468 | 20,525,017 | 277,110 |
FYI, These primary-state numbers foot to the RCP totals, except for Oregon (I have the most current figures). RCP figures have a much higher adjustment for the non-reporting caucus states of IA, ME, NV, and WA., of about 40K more. They don't show their work, so I don't know why.
Gory details, here [Zoho spreadsheet. printable].
Thursday, May 22, 2008
20% of Remaining Race Still Unspecified
Regarding my earlier post, DemConvWatch has the list and timeline for announcements of "add ons".
Nothing to see here ...
Continue to ignore the RCP figures - they even show an "estimate" with no votes for Obama out of Michigan, which just conflicts with all common sense (clearly, at least one voter cast a ballot for BHO).
Here are my updated figures for the estimate of the popular vote (no direct observation of this quantity is possible).
As you can see, team Clinton will rely heavily on Puerto Rico, which is no indicator of the 'will of the people', as it relates to general election strength. To the extent they do, the caucus-to-primary adjustment becomes important. I've reviewed my figures for this. They are fairly robust. Tweaks might yield 520K instead of 560K ... probably not enough to matter.
Kentucky and Oregon remain in "projected" category, as the full vote there is not completed. (25 precincts in KY and another few percent in Oregon)..
| State | Obama | Clinton | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Primaries, States | 15,634,312 | 15,308,986 | 325,326 |
| MI, FL Adj; BHO=23% | 713,009 | 1,199,295 | -486,286 |
| memo: MI Adj: BHO=29% | 38,660 | ||
| Tally, adjusted: | 16,347,321 | 16,508,281 | -122,300 |
| Projections (KY, OR, MT, SD): | 692,548 | 811,264 | -118,716 |
| Subtotal, Tally & Projected | 17,039,869 | 17,319,545 | -241,016 |
| Caucuses, States & D.C. | 437,810 | 184,153 | 253,657 |
| IA, ME, NV, WA Adj | 253,948 | 186,934 | 67,013 |
| Tally: | 691,758 | 371,087 | 320,670 |
| Caucus-to-Primary Adj | 560,789 | ||
| Tally, adjusted: | 2,908,431 | 2,026,972 | 881,459 |
| Caucuses & Primaries, Territories | 19,371 | 10,070 | 9,301 |
| Projections (PR remains) | 768,800 | 1,153,200 | -384,400 |
| Subtotal, Tally & Projected | 788,171 | 1,163,270 | -375,099 |
| Grand Total | 20,736,472 | 20,509,787 | 265,344 |
Gory details, here [Zoho spreadsheet. printable].
SuperDay+27: Deadwood floats ...
THE "FAKE" NIGHT OF JUNE 3RD
As of Tuesday night, there is no way for Clinton to undo Obama's elected delegate lead. Yet, today there were only three supers for Obama. None from the delegate-rich state of Oregon, where Obama won by an 18% spread.
ANOTHER SUPER EMBARRASSES SELF
Not that Clinton ought not to have her gripes too. Here's one Kentucky super, who is "waiting" for ... Godot?
"It appears very difficult for her to win in the end," Beshear told the Herald-Leader Wednesday after speaking to a business group in Shelbyville. "But, obviously, it's still -- it's still possible."
Beshear, state Democratic Party Chairman Jennifer Moore and Vice Chairman Nathan Smith will serve as three of Kentucky's nine superdelegates at the Democratic National Convention in August.
Those three have been firmly uncommitted throughout the primary and all said Wednesday they would remain so at least through the final primaries in Puerto Rico on June 1 and South Dakota and Montana on June 3.There are nine Edwards pledged delegates who have not confirmed that they will switch. I guess they are waiting for Godot too...
THE PARTY OF STUPID
Remind me of this day, if I ever get carried away calling the GOP the 'Party of Stupid'.
Of course, it is possible that the supers will be "managed" so that they all declare just enough and just in time, so it appears like the voters are making a "final decision" on an election night, even if they are not.
*Eyes roll*.
[Note for new readers: "SuperDay" is the day that supers should have realized that Hillary cannot win among elected delegates, so that the supers should declare themselves and we can stop having Bill Clinton going about campaigning against the Democratic nominee, for one thing and Hillary continuing the fraud on voters by not be truthful that the remaining votes count toward anything more than her margin of defeat among the elected delegates...]
Monday, May 19, 2008
Stochastic Dominance: Statistical Vigil for Campaign Clinton Winds Down
TRICKLE CONTINUES
Three from our list (chronology of updates below list*) as Alaska's two declare for Obama and one from Kansas. Senator Byrd charges out of the gates, in the opposite direction of his State.
I'M SO GLAD WE'VE HAD THIS TIME TOGETHER
Meanwhile, Campaign Clinton is fighting for plausible deniability. If Obama implodes before the convention, the "victory" is not set in stone, right?
*[With Obama's projected magic number around 24, this list alone will be sufficient to bring victory...]
Sunday, May 18, 2008
The Weekend in Supers
Dems at the Colorado circuit party this weekend, get readyfor ... the Big Party in August - Squarestate.net
MAY 20TH IT WILL BE
Obama packed 75,000 people into a rally in Portland. I think the estimates/projections will hold ...
The supers coming off the benches in the past few days have left the race juuuust shy of closing down before Oregon. I show Obama's magic number at just 8.5, now (about 2-days of delegates, at 4/day).After that, it's a matter of what happens with the rules-committee and MI and FL, as well as whether the estimates turn out right. Obama packed 75,000 people into a rally in Portland. I think the estimates/projections will hold ...
The Obama campaign is now including some of the Edwards pledged delegates (ten of them), but not all. (A list here of Edward delegates who have either switched or remained quiet - none for Hillary...). On my numbers, I've put all of Edwards delegates in the Obama column...
Add-ons announced for California split 3-2 for Clinton, not surprisingly. Obama picked up three others on Saturday and split Friday 3-2. (For reference, Hillary has to be collecting supers at about an 8:1 pace to catch-up ...).
PARTY WITH THE PARTY - BLOGGERS LEAD THE WAY
Colorado, California, Kansas, Nevada, and Washington are all whooping it up with state meetings or conventions, this weekend.
More bloggers than national delegates attended in Colorado. (well, not quite, but close...)
List of "Official Bloggers" ("OBE's" - official blog entities) here.
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
West Virginia: Wild and Wonderful
Net delegates will break perhaps 2 higher than expected, at 12. I'll update in the a.m.
THEY CAME OUT TO VOTE - 'SUPPRESSION CRITICISM' MISSES
Turnout was strong, but not nearly as thundering as what happened in Indiana. From that perspectives, WV is as eye-catching as Maine and Virgina. We've been sort-of thinking that the close race and the Obama-phenomenon have been combining to create strong turnouts. But those are turned upside down in WV, so ... who knows.
Clearly, no one was suppressed by "the pundits" and "the media". A long while back, I wondered if Dems were going to 'vote the underdog' the entire way through 'the process'.
CHANCE AT A DECISIVE, VISIBLE LEAD FOR HILLARY IS SLIM
Still, Clinton comes away with about +147K votes, which is higher than the projected +134. A major share of the vote went to Edwards (7%), who was not in my projections at all.... Edwards is on the ballot in KY, but not any of the remaining races.
I've bumped up my turnout figures for OR and KY, just because, but only slightly because both are closed and WV was open.
Even with higher turnouts, Hillary will be hard pressed to catch-up just to Obama's unadjusted figures. She'd have to blow-out Kentucky (35% margins) and deliver a standstill in Oregon.
After that, it's Puerto Rico, which is not a factor in the general election. The offset from the caucuses is in favor of Obama, even if every single registered Democrat voted in PR and she took the territory by 20%... (PR is an open primary, though, so who knows what will happen).
It may not matter. With some luck, the delegate race could be won by Obama before Puerto Rico votes.
Table 1. Estimate of the Poplar Vote (no direct measure is available - the aggregate vote is not the popular vote)
| State | Obama | Clinton | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Primaries, States | 15,634,301 | 15,308,861 | 325,440 |
| MI, FL Adj; BHO=23% | 713,009 | 1,199,295 | -486,286 |
| memo: MI Adj: BHO=29% | 38,660 | ||
| Tally, adjusted: | 16,347,310 | 16,508,156 | -122,186 |
| Projections: | 776,830 | 823,621 | -46,791 |
| Subtotal, Tally & Projected | 17,124,140 | 17,331,777 | -168,977 |
| Caucuses, States & D.C. | 437,810 | 184,153 | 253,657 |
| IA, ME, NV, WA Adj | 253,948 | 186,934 | 67,013 |
| Tally: | 691,758 | 371,087 | 320,670 |
| Caucus-to-Primary Adj | 560,845 | ||
| Tally, adjusted: | 881,515 | ||
| Caucuses & Primaries, Territories | 19,371 | 10,070 | 9,301 |
| Projections (PR remains) | 768,800 | 1,153,200 | -384,400 |
| Subtotal, Tally & Projected | -375,099 | ||
| Grand Total | 337,439 |
JUST FOR FUN - ONE HOT CHILE PEPPER
Poblano:
What the former did was to take the sacred concept of the Democrats as the party of the working class and to make it profane, while the latter raised expectations so much as to be almost insulting. It was almost like Bill was saying: wait until the rest of the country gets a load of these rubes. By opening West Virginia's kimono in this way, the Clintons made it more difficult for the media to continue to suspend their disbelief about the viability of their campaign.
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Old-Platform Media Propagate Myth of "Popular Vote"
There is no "popular vote" in primaries Presidential nomination races.
To approximate one, for the Democratic Party, you might have to do all this. It's not very favorable to campaign Clinton.
If you don't like approximations, then ... forget it. The aggregate vote simply is not a "popular vote".
SupderDay+17: The Party Gets Goin'
SUPER DELEGATES - THE PARTY GETS GOIN'
Former Colorado Governor Roy Romner issued a strong statement in endorsing Obama today, saying plainly that now was the time for supers to declare, because the math said so.
Whether the truth from the Rocky Mountain State would resonate as far as Kentucky, was doubtful; but it is the best sign yet that the Party is gettin' goin'.
Two other Obama supports, both on our list, declared by the close of business today. Obama's projected magic number is now only 40, any combination of delegate gains to secure the nomination. Hillary's is 193.
Monday, May 12, 2008
SuperDay+16: Hillary "Reminds" WV Voters They Can Stop Obama
HILLARY PLUNGES PARTY INTO PERIL, DRIVES UP OBAMA NEGATIVES
Making the rounds in the beautiful Mountain State of West Virginia, Hillary reminded everyone that, historically, they could stop Obama from become President, if they want to: "I keep telling people, no Democrat has won the White House since 1916 without winning West Virginia."
"I reckon we can stay home, if Obama takes it away from her," ...
[Senator Feinstein, please make it stop before Oregon...]
SUPERS AMBLE IN - CASHING IN
We have begun telling everyone that we are superdelegates, in the hopes of getting discounts and free candy.
Obama picked up four supers by close of business, running his total up past Clinton on just about everyone's estimates, now. There are 28 pledged delegates up for grabs in WV, so every 10% of Hillary margin is only about 2.8 delegates ...Senator Robert Byrd, such as he is these days, remains undeclared.
We have begun telling everyone that we are superdelegates, in the hopes of getting discounts and free candy. (just kidding)
Sunday, May 11, 2008
Certified Results - DIY
AS is pointing out that Ohio has just certified its votes, or whatever.
This has prompted me to do my own tables, rather than rely on other sources. Besides, you never really get a handle on the figures until you run them yourself, most often.
Here's my breakdown:
| Contest Type / Category | Obama | Clinton | Lead / (Trail) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Primaries, States | 15,542,649 | 15,069,799 | 472,850 |
| MI, FL Adj; MI BHO=23% | 713,009 | 1,199,295 | -486,286 |
| memo: MI Adj: BHO=29% | 38,660 | ||
| Tally, adjusted: | 16,255,658 | 16,269,094 | 25,224 |
| Projections: | 861,491 | 1,007,999 | -146,509 |
| Subtotal, Tally & Projected | 17,117,149 | 17,277,093 | -121,285 |
| Caucuses, States & D.C. | 437,810 | 184,153 | 253,657 |
| IA, ME, NV, WA Adj | 253,948 | 186,934 | 67,013 |
| Tally: | 691,758 | 371,087 | 320,670 |
| Caucus-to-Primary Adj | 560,845 | ||
| Tally, adjusted: | 881,515 | ||
| Caucuses & Primaries, Territories | 19,371 | 10,070 | 9,301 |
| Projections (Puerto Rico remains) | 768,800 | 1,153,200 | -384,400 |
| Subtotal, Tally & Projected | -375,099 | ||
| Grand Total | 385,132 |
*note the Michigan memo figure is a net figure (the difference between the two differences), so that can be added/subtracted with the other numbers in the columns, for ease of sensitivity analysis. IA, WA, NV, ME have to be estimated separately, because the state party didn't report a popular vote breakdown. A Gory Details DIY
Projections
| State | Total voters | Clinton Margin |
|---|---|---|
| West Virginia | 408,750 | 35% |
| Kentucky | 498,400 | 20% |
| Oregon | 735,540 | -10% |
| Puerto Rico | 1,922,000 | 20% |
| Montana | 121,800 | -10% |
| South Dakota | 105,000 | -10% |
Hopefully, these are 'conservative', in that I'm using fairly wide margins and high turnout for PR.
The WV margin could be as high as 40%, or another 20K on my turnout guesstimate.
'Anything could happen' seems most likely if the Obama campaign somehow fell off the boat on Puerto Rico issues, perhaps.
The only other place for real controversy with my figures is that the caucus-to-primary figures put Obama Washington vote quite a bit higher than the non-binding WA primary (by about 155K). Frankly, both estimates have their problems, and one might just split the difference among quibblers, about (-70K for Obama). Turnout in the non-binding primary was quite a lot lower than in the binding primaries, and that's a plain indicator that such primaries are ... biased.
SuperDay+15: The magic numbers
Here's the magic numbers under McAuliffe's "rule-proposal" of 50% strength for the delegations. This assumes that Obama could get all of the delegates pledged to 'uncommitted'. I don't know how the prospective supers break down in the states:
| Projection1: | Days Until | Projected Margin Clinton over Obama | Clinton Net Pickup (Loss) Pledged | Clinton Net Pickup (Loss) Supers | Obama Magic # | Clinton Magic # | Elected Remaining |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | -19 | - | 370 | 507.5 | 408 | ||
| Guam | -9 | 0 | 3 tbd | 368 | 505.5 | 404 | |
| Indiana | -6 | 4 | 4 tbd | 334 | 467.5 | 332 | |
| North Carolina | -6 | -19 | 7 tbd | 267 | 419.5 | 217 | |
| Michigan Adj | 50% | 9 | 239.5 | 383 | |||
| Florida Adj | 50% | 19 | 206 | 330.5 | |||
| Supers, since NC | - | - | -17 | 186 | 327.5 | 217 | |
| West Virginia | 1 | 35% | 10 | 177 | 308.5 | 189 | |
| Kentucky | 8 | 20% | 11 | 157 | 277.5 | 138 | |
| Oregon | 8 | -10% | -6 | 122 | 248.5 | 86 | |
| Puerto Rico | 20 | 20% | 11 | 100 | 215.5 | 31 | |
| Montana | 22 | -10% | -2 | 89 | 206.5 | 15 | |
| South Dakota | 22 | -10% | -1 | 80 | 198.5 | 0 | |
| Total: | - | 36 |
based on current tally:
| Type | Total | Obama | Clinton | Lead/ (Trail) | Edwards | Remaining |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| To Date (consensus) | ||||||
| Pledged | 3253 | 1594 | 1424 | 170 | 18 | 217 |
| Super | 796 | 276 | 276.5 | -0.5 | 0 | 243.5 |
| Subtotal | 4049 | 1870 | 1700.5 | 169.5 | 18 | 460.5 |
Saturday, May 10, 2008
SuperDay+14: The view from the sidelines
I'm late getting to it, but Jay Cost has a nifty web-spreadsheet that lets you project the aggregate vote (it would be wrong to call it a 'popular vote' for reasons already outlined).
CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
Playing with the figures, one could guesstimate that the range of adjustment in favor of Clinton might be +350K to +500, yielding an all-in bracket of +87K to -89K in the "all in" bottom line of the sheet. We could call that our one standard deviation range.
MORE MEANINGFUL ESTIMATES
It's silly enough to try to add up these numbers and pretend they mean something, because they are apples-and-oranges, caucuses and primaries, both open and closed.
Jay doesn't say how he got to his estimates for the difficult states of IA, WA, NV, and ME, who have not provided a breakdown of the popular votes. However, I have backed into numbers quite different than Jay's, digging up the following disclosed numbers of people who participated in the caucuses: 239K, +250K, 177.6K, 43.8K.
Still, this is unsatisfactory.
MORE PEOPLE VOTE IN PRIMARIES - ADJUSTING CAUCUS NUMBERS UPWARD
A better result (more consistent, but not necessarily more meaningful) would be to adjust for ALL the caucus states.
Caucuses turn out fewer voters than do the primaries. Caucuses this year have turned out about 53% fewer voters than have primaries, using the actual primary/caucus results compared to Kerry 2004 actual votes in the general.
To adjust, all we have to do is apply the margin of victory in each state and a supposed turnout figure to pretend to have apples-to-apples numbers (basically normalizing the results around the 2004 Kerry vote turnouts).
It's also true that the caucuses have turned out wider margins. I don't know why that is. The average caucus margin of victory is nearly double that of primaries. Who knows why, but let's adjust, to be "conservative".
MORE VOTES DUE TO OBAMA
I end up with over 560,000 more votes due to the Obama column.
1. Revised "aggregate vote" figures for caucus states. Old vote margin is either estimated (IA, NV, ME WA) or reported. New vote margin is based on (a) 50% adjustment (reduction) in caucus victory margin (b) an adjustment to the caucus turnout figures, based on actual votes for Kerry in 2004, in each caucus state (i.e. normalization of the average caucus-state turnout to the average primary-state turnout observed so far this year).
| State | Actual Margin | Haircut Margin | Turnout | Kerry | Margin New | Margin Old |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | 51% | 25% | -39% | 111,025 | 17,099 | 4,482 |
| Colorado | 34% | 17% | -35% | 1,001,732 | 111,387 | 41,201 |
| District of Columbia | 52% | 52% | 14% | 202,970 | 119,270 | 63,870 |
| Hawaii | 52% | 52% | -31% | 231,708 | 83,869 | 19,519 |
| Iowa | 8% | 4% | -29% | 741,898 | 21,360 | 19,407 |
| Idaho | 62% | 31% | -35% | 181,098 | 36,512 | 13,228 |
| Kansas | 48% | 24% | -39% | 434,993 | 64,411 | 17,699 |
| Maine | 19% | 10% | -29% | 396,842 | 27,457 | 8,552 |
| Minnesota | 34% | 17% | -32% | 1,445,014 | 167,559 | 73,195 |
| North Dakota | 25% | 12% | -30% | 111,052 | 9,580 | 4,680 |
| Nebraska | 35% | 18% | -32% | 254,328 | 30,689 | 13,661 |
| Nevada | -6% | -3% | -29% | 397,190 | -7,967 | -6,649 |
| Washington | 36% | 18% | -29% | 1,510,201 | 194,773 | 45,703 |
| Wyoming | 24% | 12% | -35% | 70,776 | 5,460 | 2,067 |
| Total | 881,459 | 320,614 | ||||
| Net Change | 560,845 |
WHY DO THIS NOW?
Well, Hillary is likely to say that she can still win, by taking her needed votes from among the supers. Her argument is probably going to be that she's won a "popular mandate", is ahead in the current polls in key states, is strong enough to beat McCain, and is 'ready on day one'.
This will be the "cover story" that super-delegates need to vote for her.
While that is clear a change of the rules, I suppose it's fair, because the supers can vote based on astrology, if they want to.
The question is how convincing it might be.
I don't find it much, after looking at these numbers. (Puerto Rico would have to turn in over 1.5M votes or something at a 20% margin ...).
SuperDay+14: Estimates Vary ...
Here is a quick look at how far apart the tallies are among those paid to keep track.
Surprisingly, I think the Obama.com numbers are the most accurate, even though there is no reason they ought not to be biased. It may actually be that some news groups slightly bias their numbers, so they do not appear to be favoring a 'down' candidate... Still, Edwards is probably 18, not 19 (we'll know the finalized Iowa stuff only on June 14th ...).
There are seems like 795 super votes (there will be more supers than votes), at this stage, but other good sources have 796 ...
Most of the news organizations have lower pledged delegate counts than does the Obama campaign. I'm not sure why that is. The NYT may break out the pledges based on those states that have already met to finalize, versus those that are still in the wings (at least that's how I understand their inscrutable "projections from non-binding contests").
| Total | Obama | Clinton | Lead/ (Trail) | Un declared | Edwards | Total Obama | Total Clinton | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSNBC | 794 | 269 | 276.5 | -7.5 | 248.5 | - | 1859 | 1703.5 |
| NYT | 795 | 266 | 264 | 2 | 265 | 12 | 1859 | 1689 |
| AP (by NYT) | - | 266 | 272 | -6 | - | - | 1854 | 1697 |
| AP, unofficial | - | 271 | 272 | -1 | - | 18 | 1859 | 1698 |
| The Politico | 796 | 271 | 268.5 | 2.5 | 256.5 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
| RCP | 795 | 263 | 272 | -9 | 260 | - | 1852 | 1696 |
| Obama.com | 796 | 271 | 275.5 | -4.5 | 249.5 | 19 | 1865 | 1698.5 |
| DemConvWatch | 795 | 270 | 270.5 | -0.5 | 254.5 | 19 | 1860.5 | 1697 |
There is a 'half delegate' from the Democrats abroad. This occurs because there are more delegates than votes (some delegates get a half vote...), which only makes 'the game' of courting votes larger than appears on paper.
To get at a "consensus" number, one might take the Obama campaign's figures: the 271 is confirmed by AP and the 275.5 is generous to the Clinton campaign, based on the other estimates being lower, save one.
MAGIC NUMBER IS 56
Anyway, using the tally below and reasonable projections, Obama's magic number, any combination of delegate wins, stands at 56 (or near to it). With Florida's and Michigan's pledged delegates seated without penalty (hard to believe), the number is 90.
Clinton's must-do among supers to overturn the pledged delegate vote at the end of the race is 30-40% margin among undeclared supers in her favor. The range depends on what happens with the supers from FL, MI (I think they are forfeit - they should vote once, like everyone else...) and whether Edwards releases his pledged delegates (31, including FL, MI).
1. Current Tally
| Type | Total | Obama | Clinton | Lead/ (Trail) | Edwards | Remaining |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| To Date (consensus) | ||||||
| Pledged | 3253 | 1594 | 1424 | 170 | 18 | 217 |
| Super | 796 | 271 | 276.5 | -5.5 | 0 | 248.5 |
| Subtotal | 4049 | 1865 | 1700.5 | 164.5 | 18 | 465.5 |
2. Projections, above tally w/ 2025 to win
| Projection1: | Days Until | Projected Margin Clinton over Obama | Clinton Net Pickup (Loss) Pledged | Clinton Net Pickup (Loss) Supers | Obama Magic # | Clinton Magic # | Elected Remaining |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | -17 | - | 279 | 415.5 | 408 | ||
| Guam | -7 | 0 | 3 tbd | 277 | 413.5 | 404 | |
| Indiana | -4 | 4 | 4 tbd | 243 | 375.5 | 332 | |
| North Carolina | -4 | -19 | 7 tbd | 176 | 327.5 | 217 | |
| Michigan Adj | - | 18 | 176 | 327.5 | |||
| Florida Adj | - | 38 | 176 | 327.5 | |||
| Supers, since NC | - | 0 | -12 | 161 | 324.5 | 217 | |
| West Virginia | 3 | 30% | 8 | 151 | 306.5 | 189 | |
| Kentucky | 10 | 30% | 15 | 133 | 273.5 | 138 | |
| Oregon | 10 | -10% | -6 | 98 | 244.5 | 86 | |
| Puerto Rico | 22 | 20% | 11 | 76 | 211.5 | 31 | |
| Montana | 24 | -10% | -2 | 65 | 202.5 | 15 | |
| South Dakota | 24 | -10% | -1 | 56 | 194.5 | 0 | |
| Total: | - | 66 | 250.5 |
Friday, May 9, 2008
SuperDay+14: Making Book
HOW TO GET TO THAT MAGIC NUMBER
First, the popular vote margin is not as close as RCP figures suggest.
The RealClearPolitics calculations for "popular vote" (bka "aggregate vote") are misleading when they include Michigan. They put only Hillary's number in. Assuming Obama would have gotten at least 23% of the vote (which is lower than Florida, even), that would add 137K to his column.
SUPER DENSITY
Using The Politico's list, most of the undeclareds are at the State level:
- 137 - Undeclared, DNC Officials and Party Leaders
- ..80 - Undeclared, Congress critters
- ~44 - Undeclared, yet to be named "add-on" supers
Basically, there is a LOT more that will go on at the State level than among Washingtonian Congress critters.
STUNNING RELUCTANCE TO EMBRACE OBAMA AMONG UNDECLAREDSThere are a lot of ways to look at this, but separating into these categories helps.
Look just among the states that Obama or Hillary have won by a margin of greater than 20%, which we might call a "decisive" vox populi.
49 would break for Obama, if they were to follow the voting of their state, while only 5 would break for Hillary ...
Among undeclared Senators, Obama would pick up five, maybe six if Inoye switches, and Hillary none.
That's an "easy" total of 55 toward a magic number near 60-64, depending on how wide Hillary's margin in WV and KY ends up.
The most stunning include places where Obama won major margins of victory, including the District of Columbia, Hawaii, Idaho, Virgin Islands, Alaska, Kansas - all in excess of a 74%-26% split in favor of Obama. !!!
As a footnote, about equal numbers of Senators have "bucked the trend" voting against the will of their state, counting everything, even states that were very close (it's seven, with Obama up by just one).
1. Clinton has only 5 undeclared supers, compared to the 49 listed here, among states where either candidate won a spread greater than 20%. Many of these states broke wider than a 50% spread, in favor of Obama.
| State | Undeclared |
| Alaska | |
| Colorado | DNC Pat Waak |
| Gov. Bill Ritter | |
| Democrats Abroad | DNC Christine Schon Marques |
| District of Columbia | |
| DNC Christine Warnke | |
| DNC Donna Brazile [good excuse] | |
| DNC Larry Cohen | |
| Georgia | DNC Richard Ray |
| Ldr. Jimmy Carter | |
| Hawaii | DNC Beverly Withington |
| DNC Joshua Wisch | |
| Idaho | |
| Illinois | DNC (Stroger) Vacant |
| DNC Edward Smith | |
| Kansas | DNC Helen Knetzer |
| Louisiana | DNC Chris Whittington |
| DNC Claude "Buddy" Leach | |
| DNC Elsie Burkhalter | |
| Maryland | DNC Belkis Leong-Hong |
| DNC Heather Mizeur | |
| DNC John Gage | |
| DNC John Sweeney | |
| DNC Susan Turnbull | |
| Mississippi | DNC Carnelia Pettis Fondren |
| DNC Wayne Dowdy | |
| North Dakota | DNC David Strauss |
| South Carolina | DNC Gilda Cobb-Hunter |
| Vermont | DNC Howard Dean [officially neutral] |
| Virgin Islands | |
| DNC Marylyn Stapleton | |
| Virginia | DNC Alexis Herman |
| DNC C Richard Cranwell | |
| DNC Jerome Wiley Segovia | |
| DNC Jim Leaman | |
| DNC Joe Johnson | |
| Washington | DNC David McDonald |
| DNC Ed Cote | |
| DNC Eileen Macoll | |
| DNC Sharon Mast | |
| Wyoming | DNC Cynthia Nunley |
| DNC Nancy Drummond | |
| Grand Total | 49 |
- Update: Romer and Carter are members of the Pelosi Club. Jeffcoat declared today and his name is included in the tally, pending update of the overall "magic number".
- Update May 11: Carol Burke declares for Obama; (Rodriguez, also of VI, switches)
- Update May 12: Idaho's Keith Roark declares for Obama; Hawaii Dolly Strazar declares for Obama;
- Update May 13, Tuesday: Roy Romer CO makes strong Obama declaration; Anita Bonds of D.C. declares; Mayor Ray Nagin of New Orleans
- Update May 14-18: Greg Pecorino, CO; WA state Dwight Peltz;
- Update May 19: Larry Gates, KS; Blake Johnson and Cindy Spanyers, Alaska;
| State | Senator-Clinton | Senator-Undeclared |
| Colorado | Sen. Ken Salazar | |
| Hawaii | Sen. Daniel Inouye | |
| Louisiana | Sen. Mary Landrieu | |
| Maryland | Sen. Ben Cardin | |
| Virginia | Sen. Jim Webb | |
| Grand_Total | 6 |
Update May12: Akaka comes off benches for Obama
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