I'm estimating that Obama will pick up a net 19 pledged delegates from North Carolina (67 to 48). This is quite a lot higher than some other estimates out there (and therefore, my 'magic number' is lower than others).
Update: NC math will actually come out to 66-49 among pledged delegates. My mistake here is to round up. The calculations used by NC (and others?) is to scale the percentages up, by excluding any votes for candidates below a threshold (15% in this case).
| North Carolina | Total | Obama | Clinton | Lead/ (Trail) | TBD | Margin Obama | Margin Clinton |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged, Elected | 77 | 45 | 32 | 13 | 58% | 42% | |
| Pledged, PLEOs | 12 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 58% | 42% | |
| Pledged, At Large | 26 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 58% | 42% | |
| Subtotal | 115 | 67 | 48 | 19 | 58% | 42% | |
| Supers | 17 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 47% | 12% |
| Add-Ons | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% | 0% |
| Subtotal | 19 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 42% | 11% |
| Grand Totals | 134 | 75 | 50 | 25 | 9 | 56% | 37% |
The elected delegates, by Congressional District, with round-ups going to the winner of each district.
| District | Delegates | Hillary | Obama | Rest | Hillary | Obama |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD 1 | 6 | 33.84% | 63.81% | 2.35% | 2 | 4 |
| CD 2 | 6 | 39.98% | 57.62% | 2.40% | 2 | 4 |
| CD 3 | 4 | 52.48% | 43.32% | 4.20% | 2 | 2 |
| CD 4 | 9 | 32.88% | 65.78% | 1.34% | 3 | 6 |
| CD 5 | 5 | 56.22% | 41.54% | 2.24% | 3 | 2 |
| CD 6 | 5 | 49.22% | 47.79% | 2.99% | 3 | 2 |
| CD 7 | 6 | 49.79% | 46.92% | 3.29% | 3 | 3 |
| CD 8 | 5 | 39.79% | 57.64% | 2.57% | 2 | 3 |
| CD 9 | 6 | 42.44% | 56.38% | 1.18% | 3 | 3 |
| CD 10 | 5 | 61.17% | 36.22% | 2.61% | 3 | 2 |
| CD 11 | 6 | 55.30% | 42.19% | 2.51% | 3 | 3 |
| CD 12 | 7 | 20.82% | 78.34% | 0.84% | 1 | 6 |
| CD 13 | 7 | 35.14% | 62.90% | 1.96% | 2 | 5 |
| Grand Total | 77 | 41.74% | 55.99% | 2.27% | 32 | 45 |
