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Thursday, May 1, 2008

SuperDay+7: Where the boys are

The big muscle States for supers
GUAM - BIGGER PRIZE THAN INDIANA

Guam votes 5/3 (Saturday), covering 9 delegates, over 50% of whom are superdelegates (5 of 9), all three of which are undeclared ... Gulp!

[All the media will be telling us about Indiana. There is one super up for grabs there (assuming no switches) and it would take ~10% margin for Clinton or Obama to pick up 8 delegates and neutralize anyone who won big in Guam. There are three supers and one add-on yet to be decided in Indiana. As I said before, accurate info requires a lot of digging!]

WHERE THE BOYS ARE OVERALL

There are some other states with a high percentage of named supers who are not declared. Among them, Maine, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Ohio. See Table 1.

The list of the states with the largest number of named supers who are not declared is just as interesting. Maryland, California, Texas, Maine, Missouri.

Figures based on The Politico totals, which are not too far from NYT, who provides some color on the undecideds, here.


Table 1. States with a high percentage of "named Supers" undeclared - either asleep at the wheel or trying to remain neutral.
Out State C O R
100% Guam 0 0 5
67% Louisiana 2 1 6
67% Oregon 2 2 8
63% Hawaii 2 1 5
63% Montana 0 3 5
60% Oklahoma 1 3 6
57% Maine 1 2 4
53% North Carolina 2 6 9
50% Alaska 1 1 2
50% Delaware 3 1 4
50% Kansas 1 3 4
50% Mississippi 0 3 3
50% Nevada 2 2 4
50% South Carolina 2 2 4
50% West Virginia 3 2 5
47% Ohio 5 5 9


Table 2. Running total of the states with the largest number of named supers who have yet to declare for one candidate or the other.
Out State C O R
%Tlt
33% California 30 14 22
10%
43% Maryland 10 6 12
15%
53% North Carolina 2 6 9
19%
47% Ohio 5 5 9
23%
28% Texas 11 12 9
27%
67% Oregon 2 2 8
31%
47% Tennessee 5 4 8
34%
41% Washington 6 4 7
37%
67% Louisiana 2 1 6
40%
60% Oklahoma 1 3 6
43%
43% Colorado 4 4 6
45%
38% Missouri 5 5 6
48%
38% Virginia 6 4 6
51%
23% Massachusetts 9 11 6
53%
100% Guam 0 0 5
56%
63% Hawaii 2 1 5
58%
63% Montana 0 3 5
60%
50% West Virginia 3 2 5
62%
19% Pennsylvania 16 5 5
64%
57% Maine 1 2 4
66%


[Note for new readers: "SuperDay" is the day that supers should have realized that Hillary cannot win among elected delegates, so that the supers should declare themselves and we can stop having Bill Clinton going about campaigning against the Democratic nominee, for one thing.]