UPDATE: All the charts and figures have been changed in this post. When I revised the tables for 'seated as sent', I ended up double-counting with the prior method of splitting based on the percentage that Clinton won in both MI, FL. The net effect is to substantially raise the Clinton hurdle-rates / the Obama break-even rates.
A former DNC chairman sees the light, finds it high time to help Obama against McCain. Joe Andrew of Indiana.
Otherwise, it was a relatively big-number day. Clinton picked up four unnamed supers from New York and the Obama people said three unnamed supers were on the way from Illinois Monday. A couple of others. (src: MSNBC First Read) [By "unnamed", understand 'people without rank or title'.]
At the end of the day, the difference between the two candidates stood roughly at 20 delegates. Clinton's must-do hurdle rate climbed, as expected, to over 35%, as the available pool for her to catch up shrunk.
Naturally, Clinton campaign are trying desperately to have people look at poll numbers.
Here is the results table of the projections, assuming that each state's remaining supers go to the winner of the state's elected delegates:
| Projection1: Winner takes all of State's remaining "supers" | Days Until | All Remaining | Elected Remaining | Supers Remaining | Clinton Must Do Margin All Remaining | Clinton Must Do Margin Among Remaining Pledged |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | -9 | 679 | 408 | 271 | 20% | 38% |
| Guam | 1 | 672 | 404 | 268 | 11% | 25% |
| Indiana | 4 | 596 | 332 | 264 | 12% | 30% |
| North Carolina | 4 | 470 | 217 | 253 | 20% | 50% |
| West Virginia | 11 | 436 | 189 | 247 | 19% | 54% |
| Kentucky | 18 | 381 | 138 | 243 | 17% | 67% |
| Oregon | 18 | 320 | 86 | 234 | 25% | shutout |
| Puerto Rico | 30 | 263 | 31 | 232 | 26% | shutout |
| Montana | 32 | 241 | 15 | 226 | 32% | shutout |
| South Dakota | 32 | 224 | 0 | 224 | 35% | n.m. |
| FL, MI Adj | August | 259 | 31% |
Here are the assumptions, assuming the 'worst case' in which MI and FL are seated as sent:
| Projection1: Winner takes all remaining Supers | Days Until | Projected Margin Clinton over Obama | Clinton Net Pickup (Loss) Pledged | Clinton Net Pickup (Loss) Supers | Obama Lead / (Trail) | Obama Pledged Lead / (Trail) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | -9 | - | 136 | 156 | ||
| Michigan Adj | - | 18 | 118 | 138 | ||
| Florida Adj | - | 38 | 80 | 100 | ||
| Guam | 1 | 2% | 0 | 3 | 77 | 100 |
| Indiana | 4 | 2% | 2 | 4 | 71 | 98 |
| North Carolina | 4 | -10% | -11 | -11 | 93 | 109 |
| West Virginia | 11 | 20% | 6 | 6 | 81 | 103 |
| Kentucky | 18 | 20% | 11 | 4 | 66 | 92 |
| Oregon | 18 | -10% | -6 | -9 | 81 | 98 |
| Puerto Rico | 30 | 20% | 11 | 2 | 68 | 87 |
| Montana | 32 | -10% | -2 | -6 | 76 | 89 |
| South Dakota | 32 | -10% | -1 | -2 | 79 | 90 |
| Total: | - | 10 | -9 |
