CLUELESS SENIOR SENATOR FROM CALIFORNIA
This time it's a big one, Senator Diane Feinstein, who apparently has hearing left only in one ear:
"I agree that she should take this for as long as she feels she has a chance to win it," Feinstein added. "And she says she will do nothing that causes the party any difficulty."
Hello? Doesn't math trump feelings? Does just the 'confidence in her voice' matter, not the fact that there are not enough pledged delegates left for her to clinch? Do you typically fall so easily for 'confidence schemes', Senator?
It's no wonder Carville, et. al., believe they can intimidate this set of folks. They come across like the party's deadwood, rather than "leaders".
NO DAMAGE, SENATOR? PLEASE COME INTO THE OPEN AIR
Hillary has already set up grievances that she alone cannot resolve. She's indicted the party to "solve" MI and FL, even though she is no impartial arbiter of that and cannot be (if it were a court, she wouldn't even have standing, most likely).
She's told her supporters to feel outraged because Republican rules were not applied to her, although there is no way that they can be.
We can actually measure the damage she is doing. 35% of her supporters say they will vote for McCain. This is true after her "pronouncements" in PA. Moreover, the polling on that is getting worse, not better.
Today, Hillary played the race card in order to "win big" in WV and KY. How is that good for the party, Senator?
We've been listening a long time now, to Hillary. She didn't just mis-speak. No way. What she said was calculated. There are no two ways about it. She is just too careful a speaker to have "slipped" in her characterization. She wasn't even speaking quickly ...
OBAMA PICKS UP TWO
Two Supers ambled out of the barn of stink that they are all in and declared for Obama. One from North Carolina (seven more in NC undeclared, two to be named later, and five known now).
His magic number (any combination of supers of being the projected spreads among pledged in the upcoming races), stands at 64, on my figures, which assume blowout wins in WV and KY of 25% margin in favor of Clinton. I'm not sure her pity wagon will hold more than that, but one could up those to 30%, in which case the magic number is back up to 65.
THE MYTH OF OREGON
For some reason the Obama campaign (including Obama himself) are perpetrating a myth that by May 20th something more will be known.
It is true that, assuming Obama gets about a 10% margin win in Oregon that Clinton will no longer be able to erase his lead among pledged delegates. (see table below).
What's amazing is that this level of certainty is required. At this point, Hillary needs 85% of all remaining pledged to neutralize Obama's lead among pledged delegates. That translates into 85-to-7 odds, or about twelve to one.
If someone isn't convinced at 85-to-7 that they are out of it, what difference does a day make, so to speak? At least everyone knew that Huckabee knew that he was out of it, despite his having fun continuing to run because "I've got nothing better to do".
Projections of pledged delegates ("elected"). WV and KY assumed at 30% margin for Clinton, 10% margin for Obama in Oregon. Clinton is already shut out from the race based on delegates needed. The margin shown here are those required for the lower hurdle of erasing Obama's lead among pledged delegates.
| Projection1: Winner takes all of State's remaining "supers" | Days Until | All Remaining | Elected Remaining | Supers Remaining | Clinton Must Do Margin All Remaining | Clinton Must Do Margin Among Remaining Pledged |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | -16 | 668.5 | 408 | 260.5 | 24% | 41% |
| Guam | -6 | 664.5 | 404 | 260.5 | 15% | 42% |
| Indiana | -3 | 592.5 | 332 | 260.5 | 16% | 50% |
| North Carolina | -3 | 477.5 | 217 | 260.5 | 24% | 85% |
| West Virginia | 4 | 443.5 | 189 | 254.5 | 23% | 63% |
| Kentucky | 11 | 388.5 | 138 | 250.5 | 21% | 76% |
| Oregon | 11 | 327.5 | 86 | 241.5 | 30% | shutout |
| Puerto Rico | 23 | 270.5 | 31 | 239.5 | 32% | shutout |
| Montana | 25 | 248.5 | 15 | 233.5 | 38% | shutout |
| South Dakota | 25 | 231.5 | 0 | 231.5 | 42% | n.m. |
| FL, MI Adj | August | 266.5 | 266.5 | 36% | n.m. | |
| Pelosi Club, Adj | 12 | 260.5 | 260.5 | 37% | n.m. |
[Note for new readers: "SuperDay" is the day that supers should have realized that Hillary cannot win among elected delegates, so that the supers should declare themselves and we can stop having Bill Clinton going about campaigning against the Democratic nominee, for one thing.]
