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Sunday, May 4, 2008

It's an Edsall

Ed has stirred up a flurry, it appears, at HuffPo.

It's not true, Ed, as readers here know. Just on the math, Hillary cannot "take the lead" among elected delegates using Fl and MI, even if their delegations are seated as sent.

The projections here already include estimates for FL and MI, even though it is outrageous that they get anything, just so that ardent Clinton supporters don't find the numbers generous to Obama.

From what I gather, there are some considerations about how the add-ons and who is on the committees from each delegation and whether the Obama campaign has been sufficiently involved in influencing the selection of delegate who are friendly to Obama interests.

Adding on more supers might give Clinton some more leeway, but it's doubtful, as she'll likely still need a considerable supermajority and their willingness to overturn the pledged delegates ...

Update: Ambinder has more on why this nuke won't detonate.