The Democrats staged another one of their pineapple upside down contests, in which no one won. Surprise!
Guam will likely split its four 2-2, a net gain of zero, but it could end up being 1.5 to 2.5, even, given the magic of being liberal. Net money spent: ?. Obama's seven-vote win will pressure supers (3 up for grabs), there, possibly; but, then again, maybe no more than the summer breezes.
OH WHEN THE SAINTS, COME MARCHING IN
Meanwhile, four more supers declared themselves, with three ambling in for Obama and just one for Clinton. Two from Maryland, one of the States with the largest number of undecideds, split one-one.
Slate puts up a java-based delegate tracker and finally asks the media to stop drumming up ratings for their election-year coverage (Hillary Clinton, Fairy Princess).
WHO'S GONNA PAY FOR THIS MESS?
"I’m telling you, my husband is going to visit every place where two or more people gather in North Carolina before Tuesday."
-Hillary Clinton, Can I Get a Witness?
Yeah, but who is gonna pay to have him go back and undo the damage he had done to the democratic nominee? He's not going back to all those small towns. How many small Indiana towns did Bill visit when he was President? This is the biggest fairy-tale ...
THE TALLY AND PROJECTIONS
THE MICHIGAN 'PROPOSAL'
Those Michiganders have a proposal out, amidst their threats to the rest of the party, to split the difference between the delegation "as is" and what the Obama camp have suggested is a more meaningful split. One problem appears to be that delegates are pledged to "uncommitted", so putting them all in the "Obama" column might be untenable. Anyway, here's a peek:
| Michigan | Total | "Obama" | Clinton | Lead/ (Trail) | Margin Obama | Margin Clinton |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged, Elected | 83 | 36 | 47 | -11 | 43% | 57% |
| Pledged, PLEOs | 17 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 41% | 59% |
| Pledged, At Large | 28 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 43% | 57% |
| Subtotal | 128 | 55 | 73 | -18 | 43% | 57% |
| Supers | 27 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 45% | 55% |
| Add-Ons | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 45% | 55% |
| Subtotal | 29 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 45% | 55% |
| Grand Totals | 157 | 66 | 91 | -25 | 42% | 58% |
| Proposal: | 128 | 59 | 69 | -10 | 46% | 54% |
The method for these projections is unchanged. I've added a line for the six undeclared Pelosi club members, who will cast their vote as supers according to the final pledged delegate count.
Table. Projections (include the add-on delegates from Illinois for Obama coming Monday)
| Projection1: Winner takes all of State's remaining "supers" | Days Until | All Remaining | Elected Remaining | Supers Remaining | Clinton Must Do Margin All Remaining | Clinton Must Do Margin Among Remaining Pledged |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | -11 | 674 | 408 | 266 | 20% | 38% |
| Guam | -1 | 667 | 404 | 263 | 13% | 24% |
| Indiana | 2 | 591 | 332 | 259 | 13% | 29% |
| North Carolina | 2 | 465 | 217 | 248 | 22% | 49% |
| West Virginia | 9 | 431 | 189 | 242 | 20% | 53% |
| Kentucky | 16 | 376 | 138 | 238 | 19% | 65% |
| Oregon | 16 | 315 | 86 | 229 | 28% | shutout |
| Puerto Rico | 28 | 258 | 31 | 227 | 29% | shutout |
| Montana | 30 | 236 | 15 | 221 | 35% | shutout |
| South Dakota | 30 | 219 | 0 | 219 | 39% | n.m. |
| FL, MI Adj | August | 254 | 34% | 0% | ||
| Pelosi Club, Adj | 17 | 248 | 35% | 0% |
...because Obama "wins" Guam, it is projected under "winner takes all" that he will pick up the State's remaining, undeclared supers. This may or may not occur, but it's one way of working the picture:
| Projection1: Winner takes all remaining Supers | Days Until | Projected Margin Clinton over Obama | Clinton Net Pickup (Loss) Pledged | Clinton Net Pickup (Loss) Supers | Obama Lead / (Trail) | Obama Pledged Lead / (Trail) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | -11 | - | 137 | 154 | ||
| Michigan Adj | - | 18 | 119 | 136 | ||
| Florida Adj | - | 38 | 81 | 98 | ||
| Guam | -1 | 0% | 0 | -3 | 84 | 98 |
| Indiana | 2 | 2% | 2 | 4 | 78 | 96 |
| North Carolina | 2 | -9% | -11 | -11 | 100 | 107 |
| West Virginia | 9 | 20% | 6 | 6 | 88 | 101 |
| Kentucky | 16 | 20% | 11 | 4 | 73 | 90 |
| Oregon | 16 | -10% | -6 | -9 | 88 | 96 |
| Puerto Rico | 28 | 20% | 11 | 2 | 75 | 85 |
| Montana | 30 | -10% | -2 | -6 | 83 | 87 |
| South Dakota | 30 | -10% | -1 | -2 | 86 | 88 |
| Total: | - | 10 | -15 |
