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Sunday, May 11, 2008

Wolfson: Hillary $20+ Million In Debt

I guess she does understand the working class ... ?

FEINSTEIN'S WAR - [WAKE UP, SENATOR, NUDGE, NUDGE!]

Wolfson: "We are committed to seating the FL and MI delegations."

Chris Wallace: "Even if that means going to the convention?"

Wolfson: "We are committed to seating them."

BTW, 2209 includes the supers from both states. Even if these delegations are seated, I don't believe that supers should get anything more than observer status. As Carter said, these folks were leaders, some of them, in disenfranchising themselves.

McAuliffe BUYS TIME FOR RE-EMERGENCE OF BOGUS 'POPULAR VOTE'

Hillary gets a 100 delegate handicap, so that the race can be called "close". Wow. A handicap for the presumed front runner of the whole race.

As expected, the myth of a "popular vote" continues to be advanced. There is no "popular vote" in the selection process for Democrats. At best there is an aggregate vote. Otherwise, it's mixing apples-and-oranges.

CERTAINTY WORTH WAITING FOR?

When a candidate needs 85% of all remaining elected delegates just to catch the lead of their opponent, you know that "what a few more weeks?" is not what it seems. A few more weeks will merely change that percentage to 100. That's not a certainty worth waiting for, is it? "Anything can happen?" Well, that means you just suspend your campaign, not continue to stoke grievances that you alone cannot fix.

OBAMA MAGIC NUMBER 80 UNDER McAULIFFE's '50% RULE' PROPOSAL

The Everest that Campaign Clinton is pretending to scale, at risk to self and others:

Table 1. McAuliffe said the rule is 50% for MI, FL. Here are the projections with that. Obama's magic number is ... 80. Clinton must earn a spread of 48% among all remaining supers at the end of the race (i.e. 74%-26%).

Projection1:
Days UntilAll RemainingElected RemainingSupers RemainingClinton Must Do Margin All RemainingClinton Must Do Margin Among Remaining Pledged
Pennsylvania-18651.5408243.526%42%
Guam-8647.5404243.522%42%
Indiana-5575.5332243.524%50%
North Carolina-5460.5217243.534%85%
West Virginia2432.5189243.534%78%
Kentucky9381.5138243.536%99%
Oregon9329.586243.543%shutout
Puerto Rico21274.531243.548%shutout
Montana23258.515243.551%shutout
South Dakota23243.50243.555%n.m.
FL, MI AdjAugust271
27149%n.m.
PelosiClub, Adj10265
26550%n.m.
Edwards, PledgedJune280.515.5280.548%n.m.
[Edwards has delegates from Florida, that is why you see his name in the final adjustments if FL, MI get seated at 50%]

Update: This table was updated from prior version to include yesterday's super-delegates for Obama. Current as follows:

TypeTotalObamaClintonLead/ (Trail)EdwardsRemaining
To Date
Pledged32531594142417018217
Super796276276.5-0.50243.5
Subtotal404918701700.5169.518460.5


Update2: I expect that someone will 'interpret' McAuliffe's statement. Seating FL, MI at 50% may be just too close for Clinton. Only one person from this list has since declared for Obama (and one person from the Virgin Islands switched from Clinton).