HOW TO GET TO THAT MAGIC NUMBER
First, the popular vote margin is not as close as RCP figures suggest.
The RealClearPolitics calculations for "popular vote" (bka "aggregate vote") are misleading when they include Michigan. They put only Hillary's number in. Assuming Obama would have gotten at least 23% of the vote (which is lower than Florida, even), that would add 137K to his column.
SUPER DENSITY
Using The Politico's list, most of the undeclareds are at the State level:
- 137 - Undeclared, DNC Officials and Party Leaders
- ..80 - Undeclared, Congress critters
- ~44 - Undeclared, yet to be named "add-on" supers
Basically, there is a LOT more that will go on at the State level than among Washingtonian Congress critters.
STUNNING RELUCTANCE TO EMBRACE OBAMA AMONG UNDECLAREDSThere are a lot of ways to look at this, but separating into these categories helps.
Look just among the states that Obama or Hillary have won by a margin of greater than 20%, which we might call a "decisive" vox populi.
49 would break for Obama, if they were to follow the voting of their state, while only 5 would break for Hillary ...
Among undeclared Senators, Obama would pick up five, maybe six if Inoye switches, and Hillary none.
That's an "easy" total of 55 toward a magic number near 60-64, depending on how wide Hillary's margin in WV and KY ends up.
The most stunning include places where Obama won major margins of victory, including the District of Columbia, Hawaii, Idaho, Virgin Islands, Alaska, Kansas - all in excess of a 74%-26% split in favor of Obama. !!!
As a footnote, about equal numbers of Senators have "bucked the trend" voting against the will of their state, counting everything, even states that were very close (it's seven, with Obama up by just one).
1. Clinton has only 5 undeclared supers, compared to the 49 listed here, among states where either candidate won a spread greater than 20%. Many of these states broke wider than a 50% spread, in favor of Obama.
| State | Undeclared |
| Alaska | |
| Colorado | DNC Pat Waak |
| Gov. Bill Ritter | |
| Democrats Abroad | DNC Christine Schon Marques |
| District of Columbia | |
| DNC Christine Warnke | |
| DNC Donna Brazile [good excuse] | |
| DNC Larry Cohen | |
| Georgia | DNC Richard Ray |
| Ldr. Jimmy Carter | |
| Hawaii | DNC Beverly Withington |
| DNC Joshua Wisch | |
| Idaho | |
| Illinois | DNC (Stroger) Vacant |
| DNC Edward Smith | |
| Kansas | DNC Helen Knetzer |
| Louisiana | DNC Chris Whittington |
| DNC Claude "Buddy" Leach | |
| DNC Elsie Burkhalter | |
| Maryland | DNC Belkis Leong-Hong |
| DNC Heather Mizeur | |
| DNC John Gage | |
| DNC John Sweeney | |
| DNC Susan Turnbull | |
| Mississippi | DNC Carnelia Pettis Fondren |
| DNC Wayne Dowdy | |
| North Dakota | DNC David Strauss |
| South Carolina | DNC Gilda Cobb-Hunter |
| Vermont | DNC Howard Dean [officially neutral] |
| Virgin Islands | |
| DNC Marylyn Stapleton | |
| Virginia | DNC Alexis Herman |
| DNC C Richard Cranwell | |
| DNC Jerome Wiley Segovia | |
| DNC Jim Leaman | |
| DNC Joe Johnson | |
| Washington | DNC David McDonald |
| DNC Ed Cote | |
| DNC Eileen Macoll | |
| DNC Sharon Mast | |
| Wyoming | DNC Cynthia Nunley |
| DNC Nancy Drummond | |
| Grand Total | 49 |
- Update: Romer and Carter are members of the Pelosi Club. Jeffcoat declared today and his name is included in the tally, pending update of the overall "magic number".
- Update May 11: Carol Burke declares for Obama; (Rodriguez, also of VI, switches)
- Update May 12: Idaho's Keith Roark declares for Obama; Hawaii Dolly Strazar declares for Obama;
- Update May 13, Tuesday: Roy Romer CO makes strong Obama declaration; Anita Bonds of D.C. declares; Mayor Ray Nagin of New Orleans
- Update May 14-18: Greg Pecorino, CO; WA state Dwight Peltz;
- Update May 19: Larry Gates, KS; Blake Johnson and Cindy Spanyers, Alaska;
| State | Senator-Clinton | Senator-Undeclared |
| Colorado | Sen. Ken Salazar | |
| Hawaii | Sen. Daniel Inouye | |
| Louisiana | Sen. Mary Landrieu | |
| Maryland | Sen. Ben Cardin | |
| Virginia | Sen. Jim Webb | |
| Grand_Total | 6 |
Update May12: Akaka comes off benches for Obama
