Here's the magic numbers under McAuliffe's "rule-proposal" of 50% strength for the delegations. This assumes that Obama could get all of the delegates pledged to 'uncommitted'. I don't know how the prospective supers break down in the states:
| Projection1: | Days Until | Projected Margin Clinton over Obama | Clinton Net Pickup (Loss) Pledged | Clinton Net Pickup (Loss) Supers | Obama Magic # | Clinton Magic # | Elected Remaining |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | -19 | - | 370 | 507.5 | 408 | ||
| Guam | -9 | 0 | 3 tbd | 368 | 505.5 | 404 | |
| Indiana | -6 | 4 | 4 tbd | 334 | 467.5 | 332 | |
| North Carolina | -6 | -19 | 7 tbd | 267 | 419.5 | 217 | |
| Michigan Adj | 50% | 9 | 239.5 | 383 | |||
| Florida Adj | 50% | 19 | 206 | 330.5 | |||
| Supers, since NC | - | - | -17 | 186 | 327.5 | 217 | |
| West Virginia | 1 | 35% | 10 | 177 | 308.5 | 189 | |
| Kentucky | 8 | 20% | 11 | 157 | 277.5 | 138 | |
| Oregon | 8 | -10% | -6 | 122 | 248.5 | 86 | |
| Puerto Rico | 20 | 20% | 11 | 100 | 215.5 | 31 | |
| Montana | 22 | -10% | -2 | 89 | 206.5 | 15 | |
| South Dakota | 22 | -10% | -1 | 80 | 198.5 | 0 | |
| Total: | - | 36 |
based on current tally:
| Type | Total | Obama | Clinton | Lead/ (Trail) | Edwards | Remaining |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| To Date (consensus) | ||||||
| Pledged | 3253 | 1594 | 1424 | 170 | 18 | 217 |
| Super | 796 | 276 | 276.5 | -0.5 | 0 | 243.5 |
| Subtotal | 4049 | 1870 | 1700.5 | 169.5 | 18 | 460.5 |
