Here is a quick look at how far apart the tallies are among those paid to keep track.
Surprisingly, I think the Obama.com numbers are the most accurate, even though there is no reason they ought not to be biased. It may actually be that some news groups slightly bias their numbers, so they do not appear to be favoring a 'down' candidate... Still, Edwards is probably 18, not 19 (we'll know the finalized Iowa stuff only on June 14th ...).
There are seems like 795 super votes (there will be more supers than votes), at this stage, but other good sources have 796 ...
Most of the news organizations have lower pledged delegate counts than does the Obama campaign. I'm not sure why that is. The NYT may break out the pledges based on those states that have already met to finalize, versus those that are still in the wings (at least that's how I understand their inscrutable "projections from non-binding contests").
| Total | Obama | Clinton | Lead/ (Trail) | Un declared | Edwards | Total Obama | Total Clinton | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSNBC | 794 | 269 | 276.5 | -7.5 | 248.5 | - | 1859 | 1703.5 |
| NYT | 795 | 266 | 264 | 2 | 265 | 12 | 1859 | 1689 |
| AP (by NYT) | - | 266 | 272 | -6 | - | - | 1854 | 1697 |
| AP, unofficial | - | 271 | 272 | -1 | - | 18 | 1859 | 1698 |
| The Politico | 796 | 271 | 268.5 | 2.5 | 256.5 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
| RCP | 795 | 263 | 272 | -9 | 260 | - | 1852 | 1696 |
| Obama.com | 796 | 271 | 275.5 | -4.5 | 249.5 | 19 | 1865 | 1698.5 |
| DemConvWatch | 795 | 270 | 270.5 | -0.5 | 254.5 | 19 | 1860.5 | 1697 |
There is a 'half delegate' from the Democrats abroad. This occurs because there are more delegates than votes (some delegates get a half vote...), which only makes 'the game' of courting votes larger than appears on paper.
To get at a "consensus" number, one might take the Obama campaign's figures: the 271 is confirmed by AP and the 275.5 is generous to the Clinton campaign, based on the other estimates being lower, save one.
MAGIC NUMBER IS 56
Anyway, using the tally below and reasonable projections, Obama's magic number, any combination of delegate wins, stands at 56 (or near to it). With Florida's and Michigan's pledged delegates seated without penalty (hard to believe), the number is 90.
Clinton's must-do among supers to overturn the pledged delegate vote at the end of the race is 30-40% margin among undeclared supers in her favor. The range depends on what happens with the supers from FL, MI (I think they are forfeit - they should vote once, like everyone else...) and whether Edwards releases his pledged delegates (31, including FL, MI).
1. Current Tally
| Type | Total | Obama | Clinton | Lead/ (Trail) | Edwards | Remaining |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| To Date (consensus) | ||||||
| Pledged | 3253 | 1594 | 1424 | 170 | 18 | 217 |
| Super | 796 | 271 | 276.5 | -5.5 | 0 | 248.5 |
| Subtotal | 4049 | 1865 | 1700.5 | 164.5 | 18 | 465.5 |
2. Projections, above tally w/ 2025 to win
| Projection1: | Days Until | Projected Margin Clinton over Obama | Clinton Net Pickup (Loss) Pledged | Clinton Net Pickup (Loss) Supers | Obama Magic # | Clinton Magic # | Elected Remaining |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | -17 | - | 279 | 415.5 | 408 | ||
| Guam | -7 | 0 | 3 tbd | 277 | 413.5 | 404 | |
| Indiana | -4 | 4 | 4 tbd | 243 | 375.5 | 332 | |
| North Carolina | -4 | -19 | 7 tbd | 176 | 327.5 | 217 | |
| Michigan Adj | - | 18 | 176 | 327.5 | |||
| Florida Adj | - | 38 | 176 | 327.5 | |||
| Supers, since NC | - | 0 | -12 | 161 | 324.5 | 217 | |
| West Virginia | 3 | 30% | 8 | 151 | 306.5 | 189 | |
| Kentucky | 10 | 30% | 15 | 133 | 273.5 | 138 | |
| Oregon | 10 | -10% | -6 | 98 | 244.5 | 86 | |
| Puerto Rico | 22 | 20% | 11 | 76 | 211.5 | 31 | |
| Montana | 24 | -10% | -2 | 65 | 202.5 | 15 | |
| South Dakota | 24 | -10% | -1 | 56 | 194.5 | 0 | |
| Total: | - | 66 | 250.5 |
