Almost, very nearly, but not enough road left ...217 PLEDGED DELEGATES REMAINING - NOT ENOUGH FOR CLINTON
Looking at the tables below, I cannot see why the Clinton campaign want everyone to consider Florida and Michigan. Perhaps she sees it too. According to Kos, she is not doing the regular round of morning TV shows.
Her magic number - any combination of pledged or unpledged delegates to win - is greater than the number of elected delegates available, under both scenarios, including FL, MI and not including them.
Obama, on the other hand, could win it on pledged delegates, if she dropped out and he gathered the rest of the pledged votes, under both scenarios.
If it is somehow good for the Democratic party for her to continue, I don't get it. Telling voters that their vote counts when it cannot help her is fraudulent. I suppose you could say the same for Obama IF you threw in all the supers from FL and MI, but even that is sketchy - it pushes his magic number up to 207 versus 217 remaining, although it drops after WV...
1. Projections - no FL, Mi pledged adjustments, just 2025 needed to secure. Delegate splits based on popular vote - actual pledged allocation from N.C. may be slightly less in favor of Obama (although he could pick up many of their supers).
| Projection1: Winner takes all remaining Supers | Days Until | Projected Margin Clinton over Obama | Clinton Net Pickup (Loss) Pledged | Clinton Net Pickup (Loss) Supers | Obama Magic # | Clinton Magic # | Elected Remaining |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | -14 | - | 277 | 416 | 408 | ||
| Guam | -4 | 0% | 0 | -3 tbd | 275 | 414 | 404 |
| Indiana | -1 | 2% | 2 | 4 | 240 | 377 | 332 |
| North Carolina | -1 | -14% | -17 | -11 | 146 | 322 | 217 |
| - | 18 | 146 | 322 | ||||
| - | 38 | 146 | 322 | ||||
| West Virginia | 6 | 25% | 8 | 6 | 136 | 304 | 189 |
| Kentucky | 13 | 25% | 13 | 4 | 117 | 272 | 138 |
| Oregon | 13 | -10% | -6 | -9 | 73 | 252 | 86 |
| Puerto Rico | 25 | 20% | 11 | 2 | 51 | 219 | 31 |
| Montana | 27 | -10% | -2 | -6 | 34 | 216 | 15 |
| South Dakota | 27 | -10% | -1 | -2 | 23 | 210 | 0 |
| Total: | - | 64 | -12 | 233 |
If you through in Florida and Michigan, then it's a lot tighter for Obama but it appears that he is not shut out.
1. Projections - including FL, Mi pledged adjustments, with 2180.5 needed to secure the nomination (based on including pledged delegates as sent - which is pretty outrageous, considering that the RNC penalized the FL Republican delegation by cutting it in half...).
| Projection1: Winner takes all remaining Supers | Days Until | Projected Margin Clinton over Obama | Clinton Net Pickup (Loss) Pledged | Clinton Net Pickup (Loss) Supers | Obama Magic # | Clinton Magic # | Elected Remaining |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | -14 | - | 432.5 | 571.5 | 408 | ||
| Guam | -4 | 0% | 0 | -3 tbd | 430.5 | 569.5 | 404 |
| Indiana | -1 | 2% | 2 | 4 | 395.5 | 532.5 | 332 |
| North Carolina | -1 | -14% | -17 | -11 | 301.5 | 477.5 | 217 |
| Michigan Adj | - | 18 | 246.5 | 404.5 | |||
| Florida Adj | - | 38 | 179.5 | 299.5 | |||
| West Virginia | 6 | 25% | 8 | 6 | 169.5 | 281.5 | 189 |
| Kentucky | 13 | 25% | 13 | 4 | 150.5 | 249.5 | 138 |
| Oregon | 13 | -10% | -6 | -9 | 106.5 | 229.5 | 86 |
| Puerto Rico | 25 | 20% | 11 | 2 | 84.5 | 196.5 | 31 |
| Montana | 27 | -10% | -2 | -6 | 67.5 | 193.5 | 15 |
| South Dakota | 27 | -10% | -1 | -2 | 56.5 | 187.5 | 0 |
| Total: | - | 64 | -12 | 244 |
Table 3. Projections - throwing in all the supers for Fl and MI too, just for the hell of it, with 2208 needed to secure the nomination:
| Projection1: Winner takes all remaining Supers | Days Until | Projected Margin Clinton over Obama | Clinton Net Pickup (Loss) Pledged | Clinton Net Pickup (Loss) Supers | Obama Magic # | Clinton Magic # | Elected Remaining |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | -14 | - | 460 | 599 | 408 | ||
| Guam | -4 | 0% | 0 | -3 tbd | 458 | 597 | 404 |
| Indiana | -1 | 2% | 2 | 4 | 423 | 560 | 332 |
| North Carolina | -1 | -14% | -17 | -11 | 329 | 505 | 217 |
| Michigan Adj | - | 18 | 274 | 432 | |||
| Florida Adj | - | 38 | 207 | 327 | |||
| West Virginia | 6 | 25% | 8 | 6 | 197 | 309 | 189 |
| Kentucky | 13 | 25% | 13 | 4 | 178 | 277 | 138 |
| Oregon | 13 | -10% | -6 | -9 | 134 | 257 | 86 |
| Puerto Rico | 25 | 20% | 11 | 2 | 112 | 224 | 31 |
| Montana | 27 | -10% | -2 | -6 | 95 | 221 | 15 |
| South Dakota | 27 | -10% | -1 | -2 | 84 | 215 | 0 |
| Total: | - | 64 | -12 | 299 |
Can Hillary muster what is needed among the supers? It's looking like she may need them to split 60-40 in her favor, to overtake Obama's lead in delegates ... :
| Projection1: Winner takes all of State's remaining "supers" | Days Until | All Remaining | Elected Remaining | Supers Remaining | Clinton Must Do Margin All Remaining* | Clinton Must Do Margin Among Remaining Pledged* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | -14 | 673 | 408 | 265 | 21% | 38% |
| Guam | -4 | 669 | 404 | 265 | 12% | 24% |
| Indiana | -1 | 593 | 332 | 261 | 13% | 29% |
| North Carolina | -1 | 467 | 217 | 250 | 22% | 52% |
| West Virginia | 6 | 433 | 189 | 244 | 21% | 56% |
| Kentucky | 13 | 378 | 138 | 240 | 20% | 67% |
| Oregon | 13 | 317 | 86 | 231 | 28% | shutout |
| Puerto Rico | 25 | 260 | 31 | 229 | 29% | shutout |
| Montana | 27 | 238 | 15 | 223 | 35% | shutout |
| South Dakota | 27 | 221 | 0 | 221 | 39% | n.m. |
| FL, MI Adj | August | 256 | 34% | n.m. | ||
| PelosiClub, Adj | 14 | 250 | 35% | n.m. |
