CLINTON, ALREADY SHUT-OUT, SOMEHOW STILL TELLS PEOPLE TO VOTE FOR HER
So far, the Clinton campaign has been masterful at keeping up the appearance that there is a race for votes going on, at creating the appearance that a vote for her is not just a sentimental vote, at this point.
Today, Kos puts up a table that shows Clinton cannot win the required number of delegates, from the non-super set:
| Delegates: | Pledged | Super | Total | Needed |
| Obama | 1,490 | 248 | 1,738 | 286 |
| Clinton | 1,339 | 269 | 1,608 | 416 |
| Remaining | 404 | 278 | 682 | |
| (2,024.5 delegates needed for victory) n.b. Clinton needs more than pledged available! | ||||
Using the total number needed is as reasonable approach as the one I've used here, which is based on Clinton's margin required to overtake Obama's current lead, both overall and in pledged delegates.
SO WHY IS SHE CAMPAIGNING, STILL? TO FORCE A SHOWDOWN
We don't know why she is still campaigning, but the numbers tell a tale, as they often do, whether you knew anything about the candidates or not.
If she were to drop out, Obama could reach the winner's threshold based on elected delegates.
Staying in forces a showdown within the party, one way or the other, whether it is over FL and MI or whether it is a credentials fight or merely throwing oneself into the good graces of the party's supers.
You can start to see why some people believe that the Clintons have gotten carried away.
Asking again, in this context, do FL and MI matter? On my numbers, its the same story, just a closer horse-race. Plugging in the elected delegates from MI&FL, Clinton cannot win it with the remaining elected delegates, but Obama could, if she dropped out and he captured all of the delegates remaining, even as late as after the N.C. and Indiana primaries. So, the reason Hillary remains in the race is to force a showdown among the supers, within the party.
[Note for new readers: "SuperDay" is the day that supers should have realized that Hillary cannot win among elected delegates, so that the supers should declare themselves and we can stop having Bill Clinton going about campaigning against the Democratic nominee, for one thing.]
