SKIP THE DRAMA
Tonight and tomorrow the forces of confusion will force many away from the lucidity of math.
Do yourself a favor and don't tune in to any "news" program tomorrow night. Words like "game changer" and "upset" and "victory" do not apply.
The truth?
Hillary Clinton is shut out from winning the race using elected delegates. This is true even if you include Florida and Michigan.
Iron clad:
- Clinton needs 416 delegates to clinch. There are only 404 elected left (the rest are supers).
- Including Michigan and Florida (without any penalty, which is outrageous), Clinton needs 390 of 416 left. That might seem close, but it is not. After Indiana, the available delegates drops to 332 and then to 217 after North Carolina. She cannot catch up. The pie is shrinking too fast.
- Obama's margins are also close, but he could still win it on elected delegates, if she were to drop out.
THE CLINTON DEMOCRATIC PARTY PUTSCH
Because there is not enough room left to win by getting people to vote for her (remember, "shut-out" means that 100% of people could vote for her and she would still not have enough elected delegates), the race has just been about a charade.
I do not like this charade, because it looks like a power-grab to me.
I don't like people going around lying to voters in small towns that their vote counts, in some meaningful way, when it doesn't. When that lie is revealed, it will make people angry. If it is not, it amounts to a play in the court of public opinion to get the rules changed (basing results on a criteria like 'the popular vote'), in order to assume power.
I think Hillary would do okay as President - maybe as good or better than Obama, who knows? But if the supers choose her, it would certainly jeopardize her chances. And running a charade to 'help' supers is not supportable and wrong.
