We start the morning with:
| 10 wks, 1 day | McCain Indecisive-Leader Watch: Still no VP choice |
| 16 days | until Democratic RBC Vote |
| 31 days | until Promised nominee date |
This is where we start the day, as the news organizations have yet to decide whether and how to take Edwards into the totals.
| Estimates Vary | Total | Obama | Clinton | Lead/ (Trail) | Un- declared | Edwards | Total Obama | Total Clinton |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSNBC | - | 287.5 | 276.5 | 11 | - | 18 | 1886.5 | 1723.5 |
| NYT | 795 | 284.5 | 266 | 18.5 | 244.5 | 12 | 1885.5 | 1711.0 |
| AP (by NYT) | - | 287 | 271 | 16 | - | - | 1885.0 | 1717.0 |
| AP, unofficial | - | 290 | 273 | 17 | - | 18 | 1887.0 | 1718.0 |
| The Politico | 795 | 288.5 | 270.5 | 18 | 192 | 18 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| RCP | 795 | 288 | 273 | 15 | 234 | - | 1887.0 | 1719.0 |
| Obama.com | 796 | 289.5 | 276.5 | 13 | 230 | 19 | 1891.0 | 1699.5 |
| GreenPapers | 797 | 287.5 | 271.5 | 16 | 238 | 18 | 1888.0 | 1717.0 |
| DemConvWatch | 796 | 287.5 | 271.5 | 16 | 237 | 18 | 1888.0 | 1717.0 |
OBAMA COULD 'STATISTICALLY CLINCH' THIS WEEK
Obama magic number for the nomination now stands at 16.5, based on fairly conservative projections, without consideration for FL, MI. Clinton's is 191.
If FL, MI are included at 1/2 vote per delegate, then the magic number is 41. Clinton's is 194. You can see why campaign Clinton likes that ...
| Projection1: | Days Until | Projected Margin Clinton over Obama | Clinton Net Pickup (Loss) Pledged | Clinton Net Pickup (Loss) Supers | Obama Magic # | Clinton Magic # | Elected Remaining |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | -22 | - | 278 | 414 | 408 | ||
| Guam | -12 | 0 | 3 tbd | 276 | 412 | 404 | |
| Indiana | -9 | 4 | 4 tbd | 242 | 374 | 332 | |
| North Carolina | -9 | -19 | 7 tbd | 175 | 326 | 217 | |
| West Virginia | -2 | 12 | 167 | 306 | 189 | ||
| Michigan Adj | 54% prop | 10 | 167 | 306 | |||
| Florida Adj | 50% | 12.5 | 167 | 306 | |||
| Edwards, pledged | - | -18 | 149 | 306 | 332 | ||
| Supers, since NC | - | -30.5 | 115.5 | 303 | 217 | ||
| Kentucky | 5 | 25% | 13 | 96.5 | 271 | 138 | |
| Oregon | 5 | -14% | -8 | 58.5 | 241 | 86 | |
| Puerto Rico | 17 | 20% | 11 | 36.5 | 208 | 31 | |
| Montana | 19 | -10% | -2 | 25.5 | 199 | 15 | |
| South Dakota | 19 | -10% | -1 | 16.5 | 191 | 0 | |
| Total: | - | 14.5 |
