New Magic Number: 25

Ambinder conjures up the following:

McCain's base states + his leaners: 245 electoral votes.
Obama's base states + his leaners: 221 electoral votes.

Others will dissent (more to come).

Update: From intrade.com

Swing States, changes from Jan 18th:

State	DEM	REP	Change Dem/Rep	Bid-Ask. Dem/Rep	Elec. Vote
•Michigan‡	76	17	-4/7	9%/47%	17
Minnesota*	76	15.1	1/0.1	12%/66%	10
•Oregon‡	75	15	0/0	13%/67%	7
•Wisconsin‡	65	25	-10/10	15%/40%	10
Pennsylvania*	65	30.5	-12/15.5	6%/21%	21
New Mexico	62	36	2/1	10%/6%	5
•Ohio‡	61.5	38.2	-8.5/13.2	4%/18%	20
Iowa*	60	30	5/-5	8%/30%	7
•Colorado	57	35	12/-10	5%/29%	9
New Hampshire*	56	41.5	-14/21.5	4%/20%	4
•Nevada	47	52.5	7/2.5	17%/3%	5
•Virginia*‡	43	50	8/-5	16%/16%	13
•Missouri*	35	56	-11/11	27%/16%	11
•Arkansas*‡	23	70	-7/10	30%/14%	6
Florida*	18	75	-30/25	39%/11%	27

*No same-sex marriage (statute);•Big hate (Constitutional ignorance); ‡Super big hate (bigoted, mean-spirited exclusion)
note: bid-ask a measure of confidence in the traded probability - low is high confidence

All States, by Region

State	DEM	REP	Change Dem/Rep	Bid-Ask. Dem/Rep	Elec. Votes	Running Total
Great Plains
Minnesota	76	15.1	1/0.1	12%/66%	10	10
Iowa	60	30	5/-5	8%/30%	7	17
Missouri	35	56	-11/11	27%/16%	11	11
Kansas	10.5	86	3.5/1	90%/5%	6	17
North Dakota	6	80	1/-10	233%/18%	3	20
South Dakota	6	80	1/-5	233%/18%	3	23
Nebraska	6	80	1/-5	233%/18%	5	28
Mid-Atlantic
D.C.	95	3.7	0/1.2	1%/35%	0
Maryland	91	8	1/-0.4	5%/25%	10	27
New York	90	3	-2.5/-3.3	6%/233%	31	58
Delaware	85	6	-5/-3.5	11%/133%	3	61
New Jersey	85	6	0/1	11%/150%	15	76
Pennsylvania	65	30.5	-12/15.5	6%/21%	21	97
Midwest
Illinois	90	5.3	0/-4.2	5%/89%	21	118
Michigan	76	17	-4/7	9%/47%	17	135
Wisconsin	65	25	-10/10	15%/40%	10	145
Ohio	61.5	38.2	-8.5/13.2	4%/18%	20	165
Indiana	21	70	-14/9.8	43%/14%	11	39
Mountain
Colorado	57	35	12/-10	5%/29%	9	174
Utah	7.5	90	2.5/0	33%/3%	5	44
Wyoming	5	90	0/0	100%/6%	3	47
New England
Rhode Island	91	2	0/0	5%/375%	4	178
Connecticut	90	7	0/-2.5	2%/36%	7	185
Massachusetts	90	4	0/-1.5	7%/1150%	12	197
Vermont	85	6	-5/1	11%/150%	3	200
Maine	75	15	-10/10	13%/67%	4	204
New Hampshire	56	41.5	-14/21.5	4%/20%	4	208
Pacific
Hawaii	91	2	0/-3	2%/350%	4	212
California	85	6	-5/1	11%/25%	55	267
Alaska	5	65	0/-20	200%/46%	3	50
Pacific Northwest
Washington	85	5.1	5/-4.9	12%/194%	11	278
Oregon	75	15	0/0	13%/67%	7	285
Montana	5	85	0/0	200%/12%	3	53
Idaho	2	90	-3/0	300%/6%	4	57
South Atlantic
Virginia	43	50	8/-5	16%/16%	13
North Carolina	21	70	11/-10	29%/14%	15	72
Florida	18	75	-30/25	39%/11%	27	99
West Virginia	15	75	5/-5	67%/13%	5	104
South Carolina	15	76	10/-9	60%/12%	8	112
Georgia	10	85	0.5/-5	40%/11%	15	127
South Central
Arkansas	23	70	-7/10	30%/14%	6	133
Louisiana	12	80	7/-5	42%/13%	9	142
Texas	8	85	3/0	88%/8%	34	176
Kentucky	7.5	85	-1.5/0	100%/12%	8	184
Alabama	7.5	90	2.5/0	33%/3%	9	193
Tennessee	6.5	85	-9.5/10	131%/12%	11	204
Mississippi	6	85	1/-5	150%/11%	6	210
Oklahoma	5	85	0/0	200%/12%	7	217
Southwest
New Mexico	62	36	2/1	10%/6%	5	290
Nevada	47	52.5	7/2.5	17%/3%	5	222
Arizona	6.2	90	-18.8/25	53%/4%	10	232

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