CELEBRATE EARLY - THE PROJECTED SPLITS WILL HOLD OVER A WIDE RANGE OF OUTCOMES
I hate to say something so brazen.
But, math doesn't lie (the prognosticators may hate me for this...).
Here's South Dakota, which is very simple in its allocation:
| Margin equiv. of 1/2 Delegate | 5.6% | 25.0% | 12.5% |
| Category | CD | PLEO | At Large |
| Delegate Provision | 9 | 2 | 4 |
There will be an 8-7 delegate split over a wide range of outcomes.
In fact, 8-7 wouldn't become 9-6 until the vote split at greater than 2 times 5.6%, or 11.2% (implying a 22% spread, 61+%-to-39-%). No one expects spreads this wide.
The next breakpoint would be in the at-large category, with 12.5% (implying a 25% spread!).
Even if S.D. were close, we're talking about 1 delegate-vote at stake... Wide is not interesting...except for popular vote estimates.
Here's Montana, which is also a very simple in its allocation:
| 10% | 10% | 25% | 12.5% |
| Eastern | Western | PLEO | At-Large |
| 5 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
The delegate split will be 9-7, all the way up until the first breakpoint at 12.5% (implying a margin of 25%), when it will turn to 10-6.
The next breakpoint is at twice 10% (implying a 40% spread or a 70%-30% win), with a delegate split of 12-4 ...
SUPER HEAVEN, SUPER HAVEN
Montana is a super-heavy state (about 1/3 of the votes are from supers). Five of the remaining undeclared supers from Montana have said they will declare at the time of victor in their state.
For both states, the most interesting statistic/projection will be win or loss, no matter how slight, and very much less important is the margin, because only very large margins will move the delegate-vote splits.
