More Electoral College Madness

After looking at Amber's list and at the fantastic compilation done by DemConWatch, I decided to run the figures with Maine and Wisconsin as "blue". Nevada I'm leaving as tossup (everyone has it that way). Also leaving NH as tossup, for now, just because McCain has always done well with N.H. voters, not because the state seems to be trending toward him.

Block	"Bare Bones" Win Combos	Combs to Reach 270 exactly	Probably of 270 or more	Win Probability
ALL	102	22	50%	100%
BLUE	58	11	41%	83%
RED	44	11	9%	17%

["Bare bones" is just enough states to win and no more.]

	Bare Bones "BB" Combos		Red Wins / Blue Wins State
State	Blue Wins	Red Wins	Blue BB Combos	Blue Win %	Red BB Combos	Red Win %
Colorado	44	61	33	78%	28	22%
			26	87%	18	13%
Florida	23	79	42	69%	37	31%
			16	97%	7	3%
Michigan	38	64	35	74%	29	26%
			23	91%	15	9%
Missouri	42	59	33	77%	26	23%
			24	88%	18	12%
Nevada	49	53	30	80%	23	20%
			29	85%	20	15%
New Hampshire	58	63	36	81%	27	19%
			34	85%	24	15%
North Carolina	38	64	35	75%	29	25%
			23	90%	15	10%
Ohio	32	70	38	72%	32	28%
			20	93%	12	7%
Pennsylvania	30	72	40	72%	32	28%
			18	94%	12	6%
Virginia	39	63	36	76%	27	24%
			22	89%	17	11%

Table 3.

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	Battleground	Blue States	Red States
2008 Election	Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia	Maine, Wisconsin, California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington	Arkansas, Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota
Fewest States Blue Wins Fewest States Red Wins 2: 27-FL,21-PA 5: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,17-MI,15-NC 3: 27-FL,20-OH,5-NV 5: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,17-MI,13-VA 3: 27-FL,20-OH,4-NH 5: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,17-MI,11-MO 3: 27-FL,17-MI,9-CO 5: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA 3: 27-FL,17-MI,5-NV 6: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,17-MI,9-CO,5-NV 3: 27-FL,17-MI,4-NH 6: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,17-MI,9-CO,4-NH 3: 27-FL,17-MI,15-NC 6: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,9-CO,5-NV 3: 27-FL,17-MI,13-VA 6: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,9-CO,4-NH 3: 27-FL,15-NC,9-CO 6: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,11-MO,5-NV 3: 27-FL,15-NC,11-MO 6: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,11-MO,4-NH 3: 27-FL,13-VA,9-CO 6: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,13-VA,11-MO,9-CO 3: 27-FL,13-VA,11-MO 6: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,13-VA,11-MO,5-NV 3: 21-PA,20-OH,9-CO 6: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,13-VA,11-MO,4-NH 3: 21-PA,20-OH,11-MO 6: 27-FL,21-PA,17-MI,15-NC,13-VA,5-NV 3: 21-PA,17-MI,15-NC 6: 27-FL,21-PA,17-MI,15-NC,13-VA,4-NH 3: 21-PA,17-MI,13-VA 6: 27-FL,21-PA,17-MI,15-NC,11-MO,9-CO 3: 21-PA,17-MI,11-MO 6: 27-FL,21-PA,17-MI,15-NC,11-MO,5-NV 3: 21-PA,15-NC,13-VA 6: 27-FL,21-PA,17-MI,13-VA,11-MO,9-CO 3: 20-OH,17-MI,15-NC 6: 27-FL,21-PA,15-NC,13-VA,11-MO,9-CO 3: 20-OH,17-MI,13-VA 6: 27-FL,20-OH,17-MI,15-NC,13-VA,9-CO 3: 20-OH,17-MI,11-MO 6: 27-FL,20-OH,17-MI,15-NC,13-VA,5-NV 3: 20-OH,15-NC,13-VA 6: 27-FL,20-OH,17-MI,15-NC,13-VA,4-NH 4: 27-FL,15-NC,5-NV,4-NH 6: 27-FL,20-OH,17-MI,15-NC,11-MO,9-CO 4: 27-FL,13-VA,5-NV,4-NH 6: 27-FL,20-OH,17-MI,13-VA,11-MO,9-CO 4: 27-FL,11-MO,9-CO,5-NV 6: 21-PA,20-OH,17-MI,15-NC,13-VA,11-MO 4: 27-FL,11-MO,9-CO,4-NH 7: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,13-VA,9-CO,5-NV,4-NH 4: 21-PA,20-OH,5-NV,4-NH 7: 27-FL,21-PA,20-OH,11-MO,9-CO,5-NV,4-NH 4: 21-PA,17-MI,9-CO,5-NV 7: 27-FL,21-PA,17-MI,15-NC,9-CO,5-NV,4-NH 4: 21-PA,17-MI,9-CO,4-NH 7: 27-FL,21-PA,17-MI,13-VA,9-CO,5-NV,4-NH 4: 21-PA,15-NC,9-CO,5-NV 7: 27-FL,21-PA,17-MI,13-VA,11-MO,5-NV,4-NH 4: 21-PA,15-NC,9-CO,4-NH 7: 27-FL,21-PA,15-NC,13-VA,11-MO,5-NV,4-NH 4: 21-PA,15-NC,11-MO,5-NV 7: 27-FL,20-OH,17-MI,15-NC,9-CO,5-NV,4-NH 4: 21-PA,15-NC,11-MO,4-NH 7: 27-FL,20-OH,17-MI,15-NC,11-MO,5-NV,4-NH 4: 21-PA,13-VA,9-CO,5-NV 7: 27-FL,20-OH,17-MI,13-VA,11-MO,5-NV,4-NH 4: 21-PA,13-VA,11-MO,5-NV 7: 27-FL,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,11-MO,9-CO,5-NV 4: 21-PA,13-VA,11-MO,4-NH 7: 27-FL,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,11-MO,9-CO,4-NH 4: 20-OH,17-MI,9-CO,5-NV 7: 27-FL,17-MI,15-NC,13-VA,11-MO,9-CO,5-NV 4: 20-OH,17-MI,9-CO,4-NH 7: 27-FL,17-MI,15-NC,13-VA,11-MO,9-CO,4-NH 4: 20-OH,15-NC,9-CO,5-NV 7: 21-PA,20-OH,17-MI,15-NC,13-VA,9-CO,5-NV 4: 20-OH,15-NC,9-CO,4-NH 7: 21-PA,20-OH,17-MI,15-NC,13-VA,9-CO,4-NH 4: 20-OH,15-NC,11-MO,5-NV 7: 21-PA,20-OH,17-MI,15-NC,11-MO,9-CO,5-NV 4: 20-OH,15-NC,11-MO,4-NH 7: 21-PA,20-OH,17-MI,15-NC,11-MO,9-CO,4-NH 4: 20-OH,13-VA,11-MO,9-CO 7: 21-PA,20-OH,17-MI,13-VA,11-MO,9-CO,5-NV 4: 20-OH,13-VA,11-MO,5-NV 8: 21-PA,20-OH,15-NC,13-VA,11-MO,9-CO,5-NV,4-NH 4: 20-OH,13-VA,11-MO,4-NH 4: 17-MI,15-NC,13-VA,5-NV 4: 17-MI,15-NC,13-VA,4-NH 4: 17-MI,15-NC,11-MO,9-CO 4: 17-MI,15-NC,11-MO,5-NV 4: 17-MI,13-VA,11-MO,9-CO 4: 15-NC,13-VA,11-MO,9-CO 5: 21-PA,11-MO,9-CO,5-NV,4-NH 5: 20-OH,13-VA,9-CO,5-NV,4-NH 5: 20-OH,11-MO,9-CO,5-NV,4-NH 5: 17-MI,15-NC,9-CO,5-NV,4-NH 5: 17-MI,13-VA,9-CO,5-NV,4-NH 5: 17-MI,13-VA,11-MO,5-NV,4-NH 5: 15-NC,13-VA,11-MO,5-NV,4-NH

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