After looking at Amber's list and at the fantastic compilation done by DemConWatch, I decided to run the figures with Maine and Wisconsin as "blue". Nevada I'm leaving as tossup (everyone has it that way). Also leaving NH as tossup, for now, just because McCain has always done well with N.H. voters, not because the state seems to be trending toward him.
| Block | "Bare Bones" Win Combos | Combs to Reach 270 exactly | Probably of 270 or more | Win Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALL | 102 | 22 | 50% | 100% |
| BLUE | 58 | 11 | 41% | 83% |
| RED | 44 | 11 | 9% | 17% |
["Bare bones" is just enough states to win and no more.]
| Bare Bones "BB" Combos | Red Wins / Blue Wins State | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Blue Wins | Red Wins | Blue BB Combos | Blue Win % | Red BB Combos | Red Win % |
| Colorado | 44 | 61 | 33 | 78% | 28 | 22% |
| 26 | 87% | 18 | 13% | |||
| Florida | 23 | 79 | 42 | 69% | 37 | 31% |
| 16 | 97% | 7 | 3% | |||
| Michigan | 38 | 64 | 35 | 74% | 29 | 26% |
| 23 | 91% | 15 | 9% | |||
| Missouri | 42 | 59 | 33 | 77% | 26 | 23% |
| 24 | 88% | 18 | 12% | |||
| Nevada | 49 | 53 | 30 | 80% | 23 | 20% |
| 29 | 85% | 20 | 15% | |||
| New Hampshire | 58 | 63 | 36 | 81% | 27 | 19% |
| 34 | 85% | 24 | 15% | |||
| North Carolina | 38 | 64 | 35 | 75% | 29 | 25% |
| 23 | 90% | 15 | 10% | |||
| Ohio | 32 | 70 | 38 | 72% | 32 | 28% |
| 20 | 93% | 12 | 7% | |||
| Pennsylvania | 30 | 72 | 40 | 72% | 32 | 28% |
| 18 | 94% | 12 | 6% | |||
| Virginia | 39 | 63 | 36 | 76% | 27 | 24% |
| 22 | 89% | 17 | 11% | |||
Table 3.
| Battleground | Blue States | Red States | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 2008 Election | Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia | Maine, Wisconsin, California, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington | Arkansas, Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wyoming, Indiana, Montana, North Dakota | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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