The GOP aren't favored this fall, but that's if you play the odds.
Here are two nasty combos that come out of a look at whether there are some more insights to be gained from using combinatorics to assess the likely ways to get to 270 electoral votes or more, from among those states assumed by many to be those each party will seek to contest most hotly:
1. FL, NH, MO, MI, NC, VA, ME, NV
2. FL, NH, MO, MI, NC, VA, CO
To me, these suggest that Romney's intrade contract ought to be trading higher ...
The details in a long post here.
If Florida flips [update for clarity: with Obama as the nominee], the odds of a McCain Presidency are very long indeed (about 8%, as I tally it - I make no warranties, however). You can understand why he's made it pander central.
Sunday, June 15, 2008
If you play the odds, Mr. Bond
