POLITICAL "SCIENCE" EXPERTS: DEMS HAVE GOOD CHANCES
Nervous? The shoe is hot.
Fby George E. Condon Jr. reports for Copley News Service.
The godfather of these analysts is Allan J. Lichtman, longtime history professor at American University and the creator almost three decades ago of “13 keys to the White House” that have tabbed the winner of every presidential election dating to 1860.
“The keys are based on the thesis that elections turn on the performance of the party in control of the White House, in this case the Republicans. And they don't depend on the particularities of the campaign,” Lichtman said.
Not once since 1860 has the party in control of the White House been able to survive if six of Lichtman's 13 keys have gone against it. Right now, seven are against McCain's party, with two others leaning against it.
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The news for Obama is similarly positive from another political scientist who specializes in studying the patterns of presidential elections. Alan Abramowitz, a professor at Emory University, has three factors that he looks at: the incumbent's approval rating midyear, economic growth in the second quarter [refund checks, anyone] of the election year and the length of time a party has been in the White House.
This gives Abramowitz what he calls the “Electoral Barometer,” which can range from minus 100 to plus 100. Since World War II, one candidate with a plus barometer has lost. That was Democratic Vice President Hubert Humphrey in 1968, where the rating for the incumbent party was barely above zero. Republican Richard Nixon narrowly defeated Humphrey.
McCain's current barometer rating is what Abramowitz calls a “dismal” minus 63, the second-worst rating since World War II and eclipsed only by Jimmy Carter in 1980
