WOMEN MAKE ONE DIFFERENCE
Montana, a closed primary, broke through the number of voters that turned out for the Kerry election, which was already the largest of the past three at-bats for the state. Number of votes cast was up 4% from 2004.
The so-called youth vote stood at 14% of the quartiles used, which seems about average to my eyes (I don't have historical election results for MT).
Obama carried women 51-46.
On the other hand, South Dakota had lower than estimated turnout. Clinton carried women, 57-43 (she also carried the male vote, but the margin is so slight it's not easy to have confidence in the estimate).
Anyway, the updated totals for the whole race, in terms of an *estimate* of who got votes and how is below.
With such a large margin for Obama, one can now make the estimates for the caucus-to-primary adjustment much more stringent. You can take the haircuts all the way down so that Obama would not have won any of these states by margins greater than single-digits (except Hawaii and D.C.), and he'd still have picked up almost 140K from the adjustment, enough to maintain an overall lead ...
1. Updated with final results for OR, SD, and MT.
| Type of Contest | Obama | Clinton | Diff. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Primaries, States | 16,380,714 | 16,165,529 | 215,185 |
| MI, FL Adj; BHO=23% | 713,009 | 1,199,295 | -486,286 |
| MI Adj: BHO=29% | 38,660 | ||
| memo: MI Adj: BHO=35% | 32,712 | ||
| memo: MI Adj: BHO=35%, HRC=46% | 54,718 | ||
| MI Adj: BHO, write-ins | 19,444 | 19,444 | |
| Tally, adjusted: | 17,093,723 | 17,364,824 | -212,997 |
| Caucuses, States & D.C. | 437,810 | 184,153 | 253,657 |
| IA, ME, NV, WA Adj | 253,948 | 186,934 | 67,013 |
| Tally: | 691,758 | 371,087 | 320,670 |
| Caucus-to-Primary Adj | 519,544 | ||
| Subtotal, Tally, adjusted: | 2,774,281 | 1,934,066 | 840,215 |
| Caucuses & Primaries, Territories | 140,829 | 273,190 | -132,361 |
| memo: Puerto Rico | 121,458 | 263,120 | -141,662 |
| Subtotal, Tally & Projected | 140,829 | 273,190 | -132,361 |
| Grand Total | 20,008,834 | 19,572,080 | 494,857 |
Details: Zoho sheet, html, printable
