On the eve of nomination certainty, the electoral college betting looks favorable, with Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania a lot more firmly in the Dem column than the current polling "toss-ups" would have it.
That's good "flexibility", because McCain will likely try to pick-off one of these states, if possible, with his VP choice.
To my surprise, Texas and Florida are not 'in play' at all. Virginia is.
I continue to believe that the most important thing about Obama's VP selection is not Hillary or not-Hillary, but that John McCain pick first ... he is, afterall, the "senior" statesman, as he keeps telling everyone.
From intrade.com:
| State | DEM | REP | Chng Wk. Dem/Rep | Bid-Ask. Dem/Rep | Elec. Votes | Running Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Great Plains | ||||||
| Iowa | 75 | 20.1 | 15/-9.9 | 7%/24% | 7 | 7 |
| Minnesota | 74 | 20 | -2/4.9 | 8%/25% | 10 | 17 |
| Missouri | 36 | 60.5 | 1/4.5 | 8%/6% | 11 | 11 |
| Kansas | 10.5 | 86 | 0/0 | 43%/8% | 6 | 17 |
| North Dakota | 10 | 85 | 4/5 | 49%/9% | 3 | 20 |
| Nebraska | 10 | 80 | 4/0 | 90%/11% | 5 | 25 |
| South Dakota | 5 | 85 | -1/5 | 200%/9% | 3 | 28 |
| Mid-Atlantic | ||||||
| D.C. | 95 | 3.7 | 0/0 | 1%/35% | 0 | |
| Maryland | 91 | 7 | 0/-1 | 2%/41% | 10 | 27 |
| New Jersey | 86.5 | 6 | 1.5/0 | 6%/125% | 15 | 42 |
| Delaware | 86 | 6 | 1/0 | 8%/108% | 3 | 45 |
| New York | 86 | 5 | -4/2 | 7%/180% | 31 | 76 |
| Pennsylvania | 69 | 18.1 | 4/-12.4 | 9%/60% | 21 | 97 |
| Midwest | ||||||
| Illinois | 95 | 4 | 5/-1.3 | 1%/25% | 21 | 118 |
| Michigan | 70 | 25 | -6/8 | 13%/20% | 17 | 135 |
| Wisconsin | 66.1 | 30 | 1.1/5 | 13%/13% | 10 | 145 |
| Ohio | 61.5 | 38 | 0/-0.2 | 5%/5% | 20 | 165 |
| Indiana | 16 | 80 | -5/10 | 56%/1% | 11 | 39 |
| Mountain | ||||||
| Colorado | 60.6 | 35 | 3.6/0 | 7%/13% | 9 | 174 |
| Utah | 7.5 | 90 | 0/0 | 33%/6% | 5 | 44 |
| Wyoming | 5 | 90 | 0/0 | 100%/6% | 3 | 47 |
| New England | ||||||
| Massachusetts | 93 | 6.5 | 3/2.5 | 2%/131% | 12 | 186 |
| Rhode Island | 91 | 2 | 0/0 | 4%/375% | 4 | 190 |
| Connecticut | 90 | 7.7 | 0/0.7 | 6%/23% | 7 | 197 |
| Vermont | 86 | 6 | 1/0 | 9%/133% | 3 | 200 |
| Maine | 82 | 10 | 7/-5 | 10%/80% | 4 | 204 |
| New Hampshire | 46 | 46 | -10/4.5 | 19%/15% | 4 | |
| Pacific | ||||||
| Hawaii | 96 | 2 | 5/0 | 1%/145% | 4 | 208 |
| California | 87 | 8 | 2/2 | 6%/50% | 55 | 263 |
| Alaska | 5 | 85 | 0/20 | 180%/12% | 3 | 50 |
| Pacific Northwest | ||||||
| Washington | 85 | 5.1 | 0/0 | 11%/194% | 11 | 274 |
| Oregon | 80 | 10 | 5/-5 | 13%/100% | 7 | 281 |
| Montana | 10 | 80 | 5/-5 | 90%/11% | 3 | 53 |
| Idaho | 2 | 90 | 0/0 | 300%/6% | 4 | 57 |
| South Atlantic | ||||||
| Virginia | 46 | 50.5 | 3/0.5 | 8%/7% | 13 | 70 |
| Florida | 20.1 | 70 | 2.1/-5 | 39%/11% | 27 | 97 |
| North Carolina | 18 | 75 | -3/5 | 33%/5% | 15 | 112 |
| West Virginia | 15 | 75 | 0/0 | 67%/13% | 5 | 117 |
| South Carolina | 11 | 88.1 | -4/12.1 | 18%/1% | 8 | 125 |
| Georgia | 10.1 | 80 | 0.1/-5 | 53%/15% | 15 | 140 |
| South Central | ||||||
| Arkansas | 22 | 75.6 | -1/5.6 | 10%/11% | 6 | 146 |
| Louisiana | 12 | 84 | 0/4 | 42%/4% | 9 | 155 |
| Kentucky | 7.5 | 90 | 0/5 | 31%/4% | 8 | 163 |
| Alabama | 7.5 | 90 | 0/0 | 33%/7% | 9 | 172 |
| Tennessee | 6.5 | 85 | 0/0 | 115%/9% | 11 | 183 |
| Mississippi | 6 | 86 | 0/1 | 132%/7% | 6 | 189 |
| Texas | 5 | 85 | -3/0 | 200%/9% | 34 | 223 |
| Oklahoma | 5 | 86 | 0/1 | 180%/10% | 7 | 230 |
| Southwest | ||||||
| New Mexico | 60.2 | 33 | -1.8/-3 | 13%/21% | 5 | 286 |
| Nevada | 47 | 50.1 | 0/-2.4 | 6%/6% | 5 | 235 |
| Arizona | 7 | 90 | 0.8/0 | 36%/2% | 10 | 245 |
change since 5/12/08 ....
