WAITING TO EXHALE
I've revised the tables, showing that there is nothing left to contest except the margin of Hillary's defeat, for clarity and to fix a sum.
Points of interest.
If you believe the AP's tally of where supers stand in the upcoming races, there are more uncommitted supers in the states where Obama is favored to win. If they follow their constituencies, Obama will be picking up more supers "along the way". [All observed with the normal caveats that delegates do not always get apportioned according to the vote or vote alongside their constituents...]
Many in the media continue to call it a "close race". Heh. Not quite. It's a Clinton charade from here on out, mainly ...
Update: n.b. These tables supersede the prior calculations. Changes to the calculation have altered the "must do" percentage covering all remaining delegates.
Update2: MSNBC's count of remaining supers is quite a bit lower than this tally. They say only 292 remaining. The net impact is to bump-up the Hillary "must-do" margin among all remaining by about 2% at each step along the way.
Table 2a. Remaining delegates and Hillary's must-do margins (or Obama's break-even margins, because he is ahead). "Winner take all" projection allocates all the uncommitted supers in each state according to who wins the contest.
| Projection: Winner takes all of State's remaining "supers" | Days Until | All Remaining | Elected Remaining | Supers Remaining | Clinton "Must Do" Margin All Remaining | Clinton "Must Do" Margin Among Remaining Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | -4 | 715 | 411 | 304 | 17% | 35% |
| Guam | 6 | 708 | 407 | 301 | 16% | 35% |
| Indiana | 9 | 632 | 332 | 300 | 18% | 43% |
| North Carolina | 9 | 506 | 217 | 289 | 27% | 71% |
| West Virginia | 16 | 472 | 189 | 283 | 26% | 78% |
| Kentucky | 23 | 416 | 138 | 278 | 26% | 99% |
| Oregon | 23 | 355 | 86 | 269 | 35% | shutout |
| Puerto Rico | 35 | 298 | 31 | 267 | 37% | shutout |
| Montana | 37 | 277 | 15 | 262 | 42% | shutout |
| South Dakota | 37 | 260 | 0 | 260 | 46% | n.m. |
Table 2b. Background on running delegate totals based on projections of the spread (margin) for each race and "winner takes all" among the state's uncommitted supers.
| Projection1: Winner takes all remaining Supers | Days Until | Projected Margin Clinton over Obama | Clinton Net Pickup (Loss) Pledged | Clinton Net Pickup (Loss) Supers | Obama Lead / (Trail) | Obama Pledged Lead / (Trail) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | -4 | 0% | 119 | 143 | ||
| Guam | 6 | 2% | 0 | 3 | 116 | 143 |
| Indiana | 9 | 2% | 1 | 1 | 114 | 142 |
| North Carolina | 9 | -10% | -11 | -11 | 136 | 153 |
| West Virginia | 16 | 20% | 6 | 6 | 124 | 147 |
| Kentucky | 23 | 20% | 11 | 5 | 108 | 136 |
| Oregon | 23 | -10% | -6 | -9 | 123 | 142 |
| Puerto Rico | 35 | 20% | 11 | 2 | 110 | 131 |
| Montana | 37 | -10% | -2 | -5 | 117 | 133 |
| South Dakota | 37 | -10% | -1 | -2 | 120 | 134 |
| Total: | - | 9 | -10 |
