Chris Bowers, who I like to read, has an interesting post on OpenLeft about delegate math. I decided to do some.
He has two tables. I'll start with one that is as close to consensus on where the race stands now and then do projections. There is no difference about "consensus" on the supers on his tables. I'll take the table that shows totals in Clinton's favor, among those pledged, to yield an estimate that ardent Clinton supporters would accept.
Table 1. Consensus tally of where the race stands now, base on Chris's sources and CNN breakdowns of number of delegates for FL, MI.
| Type | Total | Obama | Clinton | Lead/ (Trail) | Edwards | Remaining |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| To Date (consensus) | ||||||
| Pledged | 3408 | 1491 | 1336 | 155 | 18 | 408 |
| Super | 772 | 234 | 256 | -22 | 0 | 304 |
| Subtotal | 4180 | 1725 | 1592 | 133 | 18 | 712 |
| MI & FL | ||||||
| Pledged | ||||||
| MI | 128 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 128 |
| FL | 184 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 184 |
| Supers & Add-Ons | ||||||
| MI | 28 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 20 |
| FL | 26 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 0 | 14 |
PROJECTING CLINTON MUST-DO AND OBAMA BREAK-EVEN
Assume that Obama is generous, and "gives" Clinton seated delegates in proportion to the vote-spread she got in Florida and Michigan. She got 55% of the vote in Michigan and 50% in Florida, according to CNN.
Next, back-into a figure for the remaining elected/pledged delegates and remaining supers to get a "must do" and a "break-even" number for the campaigns.
You can see that Clinton needs to break 58% among all the remaining races and the bid to persuade the remaining supers. There is no precedent in the race that suggest she could achieve this. She is effectively shut out.
Table 2. Clinton's "must do" hurdle effectively shuts her out
| Must Do & Break Even Projection | Total | Obama | Clinton | Lead/ (Trail) | Edwards | Margin Obama | Margin Clinton |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | 408 | 171 | 237 | -66 | 18 | 42% | 58% |
| Super | 304 | 128 | 176 | -48 | 42% | 58% | |
| MI | |||||||
| Pledged | 128 | 58 | 70 | -12 | 45% | 55% | |
| Super | 28 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 45% | 55% | |
| FL | |||||||
| Pledged | 184 | 92 | 92 | 0 | 50% | 50% | |
| Super | 26 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 50% | 50% | |
| GRAND TOTALS | 2200 | 2195 | 5 | 18 | |||
Put in your own numbers. Play around with it, pledged dreams and super wishes. It's pretty compelling.
John Edwards’s supporters are flocking to Sen. Obama
