/* Google Analytics Code asynchronous */

Sunday, April 27, 2008

SuperDay+4: Do Florida and Michigan Matter?

The answer is not so much.

If the delegations are seated as sent, then it lowers Clinton's hurdle rates, but not the timing of when she can no longer catch-up. It continues to be a race, now, only to decide her margin of defeat among the elected delegates.

The fight to seat these delegations, to the extent it is more than "fairness", seems largely to be about increasing the pool of supers, to make a convention fight plausible/doable. Although that is dubious, in practice, because Obama has a slight combined edge among FL-MI supers, with the vast majority of MI-FL supers admittedly undeclared (according to AP's tally).

As for the supers, a long time ago I indicated that the supers for MI and FL should not be seated, as apt penalty for participating in their State Party's decision to move the election up. Crooks & Liars agrees, via EmptyWheel. However, Ambinder noted a while back that the supers are "constitutional", so to speak. It might not be possible to exclude them via a credential process, if they have an "absolute right" to ... participate? to exist?. [I'm deep in the weeds beyond my expertise, on this, however.]

WHY THE CONVENTION FIGHT

In sum, if Obama's lead among the elected delegates narrows so that Clinton only needs to split the remaining undeclared supers 60-40 (20% margin), you can see why anyone might be tempted to "go for it", as improbable as it might be that the party would choose to "diss" the electorate.

You can also see why Carville was so quick to try to draw a firewall, to corral supers, just as soon as Richardson declared, perhaps.

You can also see why the Obama campaign would be self-interested in whether these delegations should submit to some type of penalty, however devised, rather than be seated "as is".


Table 3a. The Michgan delegation as it will be sent to the convention, barring a pre-convention deal. src: Green Papers.

MichiganTotalObamaClintonLead/ (Trail)EdwardsMargin
Obama
Margin
Clinton
Pledged, Elected833647-11
43%57%
Pledged, PLEOs17710-3
41%59%
Pledged, At Large281216-4
43%57%
Subtotal1285573-18
43%57%
Supers271116-5
45%55%
Add-Ons202-2
45%55%
Subtotal291118-7
45%55%
Grand Totals1576691-25
42%58%
*italics indicate estimate based on 55% of the vote that Clinton won in Michgan.


Table 3b. The Florida delegation as it will be sent to the convention. src. Green Papers


FloridaTotalObamaClintonLead/ (Trail)EdwardsMargin
Obama
Margin
Clinton
Pledged, Elected1214167-261334%55%
Pledged, PLEOs241014-4
42%58%
Pledged, At Large401624-8
40%60%
Subtotal18567105-381343%57%
Supers231112-1
50%50%
Add-ons312-1
50%50%
Subtotal261214-20
50%50%
Grand Totals21179119-401337%56%
*italics indicate estimate based on 49.8% of the vote that Clinton won in Florida.

As seen before, here is the projection of the "must-do" for Clinton (which is the same as the break-evens for Obama). Clinton gets shutout at the same point in time, whether the FL, MI delegations get seated.

Table 2a. Projections, if the elected/pledged delegates from FL, MI are seated as sent.

Projection1: Winner takes all of State's remaining "supers"Days Until
All RemainingElected RemainingSupers RemainingClinton Must Do Margin All RemainingClinton Must Do Margin Among Remaining Pledged
Pennsylvania-5
70341129216%36%
Guam5
6964072898%22%
Indiana8
6203322889%27%
North Carolina8
49421727715%46%
West Virginia15
46018927114%50%
Kentucky22
40413826612%60%
Oregon22
3438625718%shutout
Puerto Rico34
2863125517%shutout
Montana36
2651525022%shutout
South Dakota36
248024824%n.m.
FL, MI AdjAugust303
303
20%


Table 2b. The projected margins and the net pickup/(loss) under a winnder-takes-all assumption about the undeclared supers in each state contested.

Projection1: Winner takes all remaining SupersDays Until
Projected Margin Clinton over ObamaClinton Net Pickup (Loss) PledgedClinton Net Pickup (Loss) SupersObama Lead / (Trail)Obama Pledged Lead / (Trail)
Pennsylvania-5
0%

115146
...Michagan Adj
0%18
97128
...Florida Adj
0%38
5990
Guam5
2%035690
Indiana8
2%115489
North Carolina8
-10%-11-1176100
West Virginia15
20%666494
Kentucky22
20%1154883
Oregon22
-10%-6-96389
Puerto Rico34
20%1125078
Montana36
-10%-2-55780
South Dakota36
-10%-1-26081
Total:
-9-10