If runner A and runner B both take an equal step forward, runner B will be further behind and less likely to win the race, because runner A is already ahead.Today, Clinton picked up yet another Governor and superdelegate, Gov Mike Easley of North Carolina. Not to be outdone, Obama picked up a superdelegate of his own, Senator Jeff Bignaman of New Mexico.
The average intelligence person would say, well, the race is "tight", the candidates look "stalemated" (e.g. Lou Dobbs).
As McLaughlin would say, "WRONG!"
One delegate each actually puts Clinton farther behind! How CAN THAT BE, you might ask. It's because the amount of race left to run decreases faster than she can catch up, not only at a one-for-one pace, but at paces that currently stand at 2-to-1 among elected delegates and 7-to-5 among all delegate types.
BY THE NUMBERS
One delegate each actually raises Clinton's hurdle margin (lowers Obama's breakeven) by 2%. On the most advantaged numbers for Clinton that I have (including the bizarre case that MI, FL get seated as sent), Clinton's must-do margin goes up to 22% (i.e. implying a must-do split in her favor of 61%-39%). That's quite a supermajority to have to achieve, right? It's 25% (nearly 63%-37%) without the rogue MI, FL delegations.
Sadly, some superdelegates listen to the news programs (and now to Dick Gephardt, who is making calls for Clinton, reportedly):
After the bruising Pennsylvania primary campaign, Medley, originally a John Edwards supporter, says the race is "more unpredictable now than a month ago." [WRONG!] While still leading in pledged delegates, votes and states won, Obama is "sort of losing ground, it seems to me. He hasn't been able to close the deal."
THE RACE PART OF THE RACE
The media keep wringing their hands about the poor, white, working class. Well, one reason Obama has a "problem", if any, is because Bill Clinton is racing out in front, before Obama gets there, and framing the debate in voters minds:
Over the weekend, Bill Clinton marked his 24th stop in Indiana, winding his way through small, rural towns in Northeastern Indiana, which were at times so remote that nary a ubiquitous Dairy Queen in sight. The former president told partially filled gymnasiums of older voters that it was individuals in communities like these that helped his wife stay in the race.-MSNBC First Read
So where is Caroline Kennedy, these days?
[Note for new readers: "SuperDay" is the day that supers should have realized that Hillary cannot win among elected delegates,so that the supers should declare themselves and we can stop having Bill Clinton going about campaigning against the Democratic nominee, for one thing.]
