Looking at the tables below, you see why dragging the race out is just like making Obama do Logan's Run.
To illustrate, with detail, why all that is left to decide is a margin of defeat for Hillary, start with a table of the upcoming races.
The table below has 411 pledged delegates remaining (the prior estimate has 408), good enough for government work.
Table 1. Remaining race prizes. Delegates breakout from Green Papers. "Supers" breakdown from the AP.
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For this projection, it is assumed that the candidate who wins the primary takes all the "supers" that have not already declared themselves. This "winner takes all" strategy is based on the loose assumption that "supers" could be pressured to vote in the manner of their constituencies, at least those who have not already put a public face against doing so by committing aloud.
The margins of victory I've just taken from Todd at MSNBC, except for Guam and Puerto Rico, where I just made something up. As before, this assumes that all FL and MI delegates, super and plain, get apportioned by her electoral margin in each state.
You can see that, to catch up, Hillary already needs a 35% spread among delegates to be won through (expensive) campaigning. This will jump to 71% in just 10 days. This is true, even if she ekes out a small margin of victory in Indiana.
All the way to the end of the race, Obama has room to spare.
Expanding the pool to her of all potential delegates to be garnered, both super and pledged, you can see that even big wins in KY, WV, and Puerto Rico do not help her, for the same reason - just a bigger piece of a pie that his shrinking faster than she is winning. At the end, she would need 56%, more than half, of the yet undeclared "supers". It seems unlikely, even in a fight, she would get that level of support from within the party, yes?
Update: Table 2 has been superseded. Find the first update here.
Table 2. A projections "winner takes all" of the remaining, undeclared "supers" along the way. If they win the race in the state, they get all the supers who have not declared as of today's AP tally. Starting point assumes Obama "gives" Clinton delegates in FL, MI in proportion to her vote in those states.
| Projection1: Winner takes all remaining State supers | Days | Margin Clinton over Obama | Clinton Net Pickup (Loss) Pledged | Clinton Net Pickup (Loss) Supers | Obama Lead / (Trail) | Clinton Must Do Margin All Left | Obama Pledged Lead / (Trail) | Clinton Must Do Margin Among Remaining Pledged |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | -3 days | 119 | 17% | 143 | 35% | |||
| Guam | 7 days | 2% | 0 | 3 | 116 | 17% | 143 | 35% |
| Indiana | 10 days | 2% | 1 | 1 | 114 | 19% | 142 | 43% |
| North Carolina | 10 days | -10% | -11 | -11 | 136 | 29% | 153 | 71% |
| West Virginia | 17 days | 20% | 6 | 6 | 124 | 29% | 147 | 78% |
| Kentucky | 24 days | 20% | 11 | 5 | 108 | 29% | 136 | 99% |
| Oregon | 24 days | -10% | -6 | -9 | 123 | 39% | 142 | shutout |
| Puerto Rico | 36 days | 20% | 11 | 2 | 110 | 44% | 131 | shutout |
| Montana | 38 days | -10% | -2 | -5 | 117 | 51% | 133 | shutout |
| South Dakota | 38 days | -10% | -1 | -2 | 120 | 56% | 134 | n.m. |
