Hilzoy and the Thirteen Ninety-five Theses

Iraqi Sunni and Shia representatives have agreed to work towards peace during talks in Finland. -al-jazeera, Sept. 4th
Cost-of-time in "OIF Units": $10B/month or about $5,800 per word for a month of talks (80 wpm for 8 hrs/day)

AS's guest blogger, Hilzoy, has put up thirteen theses about the plus-up, which she debunks quite capably (actually, it's seven, called "eight", but here we invoke Martin Luther, rather than Wallace Stevens...).

(1) "The surge is working; we should maintain it until we've done the job."

Just to advance the idea that 'six more months' might see 'the job done' ought to relegate one to the looney bin, as counter-insurgency professionals take eight years or so as an average duration of insurgency.

Uh...L'un petit, d'Un petit ..
[get it? say it fast.]

Unlike Hilzoy, I don't think April is a 'magic' natural end. It took six months to deploy the surge. What, are we supposed to believe that everyone and their equipment can come home overnight on April 30th, when their tour ends?

Since the lead time for re-deployment seems to be upwards of a year, we're in this at least that long just from today, ipso facto, right?

This means that Bush has his deployment until the end of his term, in my worthless punditry estimation, including the next supplemental appropriation pretty much wrapped up.

Unless someone sees something I don't, there is no way around his political end-game.

(2) Even if we can't maintain the surge, we're making progress, so we should stay.

Yup. No question this is benefit-benefit "analysis". The whole point of measuring progress is to determine (a) if it is sufficient and (b) even if it is, to assess whether military gains can be consolidated in economic and political progress.

(3) Our army can handle it.

Well, we're not asking for a strategic assessment of what our army can handle, although a lot of these developments raise real questions about the all-volunteer structure that, say, Milton Friedman never envisioned.

The issue has long been whether the CIC can 'handle it'; and so far, he and his appear to have flubbed it at every stage (the gig is up, even for Kal).

If anyone was going to resign last month, it ought to have been Bush-Cheney, in favor of Baker-Hamilton, from a wartime perspective.

(5) But -- but -- look what's happening in Anbar province! It's real progress!

I'm sick of hearing about Anbar, which has never had anything to do with the surge or much to do with the Baghdad security breakdown, one way or the other.

Were it not for the problem we oursevles opened the door to in Iraq (but most certainly did not create), "The 1920 Brigade" would ordinarily put fear into people, rightly so.

Yes, it's really, really encouraging that the 'struggle inside Islam' can be won by glorious tribalism. That's a pretty far comedown from Iraqi civil society, the foundation of which has been systematically targeted and killed off, quite literally, or even liberal democracy, right?

(6) But look at all our military progress! Doesn't that count for anything?

Yes, it counts for a lot. The Romans conquered the world, too, then lost it.

Mostly, the "quality" of the progress is important. It's one thing to "clear" a locale by being better shooters, but real progress is measured by the ties that get forged, by the flow in information, by the inability of 'elements' to wage campaigns of terror and intimidation that thwart a return to 'normalcy' and 'law'.

Show me the "hold" and "build".

(7) Well, if the Maliki government doesn't want to promote reconciliation, why not replace him?

Eh. I think that the political-military focus has been on working with local leaders, those with real feet on the ground, rather than anything else. This is why municipal and regional elections, which were supposed to happen this year, are important.

"Paper reconciliation" is a pipe-dream for two parties who cannot temporize, who are so formalistic in their thinking, let alone hardened by Baathism, Saddam's totalitarianism, or sickening regional models like Lebanese Hizb'allah.

Maliki needs to focus on a functioning judiciary and building competent ministries. Fair distribution of oil revenue and electricity will probably happen despite him and his.

After that, it's likely he's just waiting out (and financially bleeding) the U.S., who are not his political allies post-election, so don't pin any hopes on him.

(13*) But we can't leave. There will be a bloodbath when we leave.

Yeah, quagmire costs suck.

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