The Government issued its crap "declassified" weekly status report (.pdf) on the ongoing Victory in Iraq.
I have to read these, because, if you are going to put up casualty lists ... well those sacrifices occur in a context and one ought to - has a solemn duty to - look at the context that the government is providing.
LOSING THE WAR AT HOME, IMPERIAL STYLE
Government statistics from Iraq are so shrouded behind the veil of "classified" secrecy, that serious-minded people are left sorting through this Administration's goose droppings that pass muster as "status reporting".
The breathtaking travesty of how Americans have been systematically kept in the dark about what is systematically going on inside Iraq has to be part of the calculation for anyone who thinks the "war was lost at home". They say Americans are "impatient"; but the truth is that they made them that way or reinforced distrust, take your pick.So many are quick to say that folks don't look for the good news coming out of Iraq. Well, government statistics from Iraq are so shrouded behind the veil of "classified" secrecy, that serious-minded people are left sorting through this Administration's goose droppings that pass muster as "status" reporting. The "news" out of Iraq is that, for years, the Administration has refused to give the American public hard-hitting news out of Iraq.
ELECTRICITY UP: Anyone - anyone - know what's going on?
I noticed an uptick in electricity. As a case in point, see if you can even make sense of this statement:
"During 2004-2006, electricity supply from the national grid reached its highest level during July and August and then declined. [no explanation why a decline. July-August of 2006, when all the violence was occuring, actually saw a slight increase in output, year-to-year]
Supply for July-August 2007 was below previous years. In contrast to those years, however, it has so far not begun to decline; [no reason given why not]
on the contrary, on several recent days it has surpassed the highest level achieved in any month during 2004-2006. [daily information is never provided, nor are any daily output ranges given, alongside the monthly figures].
[now for the clincher:]
This higher supply combined with the seasonal decline in demand has at least temporarily restored the percentage of demand served to the year-earlier level.
Supply for July-August 2007 was below previous years. In contrast to those years, however, it has so far not begun to decline; [no reason given why not]
on the contrary, on several recent days it has surpassed the highest level achieved in any month during 2004-2006. [daily information is never provided, nor are any daily output ranges given, alongside the monthly figures].
[now for the clincher:]
This higher supply combined with the seasonal decline in demand has at least temporarily restored the percentage of demand served to the year-earlier level.
Huh? The people writing this "status report" appear to have no idea what caused the 10% decline in output last year in September. There are no reasons given why this September's uptick ought to be an indication of something sustainable, which would be "good news".
Without any foundation for review or prospect, this "status report" should be retitled stick-your-head-out-the-window weather report. There is a reason that weather reports (and cute weathermen) are separated from "news". The quarterly reports aren't much better. The last one suggests "progress" of "2,120 MW new and restored generating capacity" ... That would be 50% of current production, if accurate. How droll.
The only thing that one can say for sure is that, in terms of "cumulative COIN", that bargain in which liberty sacrifices in the name of security lead to benefits beyond sheer survival, this summer in Iraq doesn't rank any better (and probably worse) than any prior year, post Saddam.
WHAT'S GOING ON WITH ELECTRICITY?
At least 45% of the nation's needs are guesstimated to be provided by private, small generators. We could have given out 20,000,000 little Honda generators at $100 a piece for $2 billion dollars and left the rest to the Iraqi government to sort out. (If so much cut short the U.S.'s stay in Iraq by even ten days, it would pay for itself!!!). This would have also handled the Rumsfeldian conundrum of not wanting to build things just so the 'dead-enders' would destroy them.
If you wanted to get a sense whether electricity supply was improving in the so-called Iraqi-controlled provinces, you'd be s.o.l.
If you wanted to have a look at the impact of insurgent attacks on electricity infrastructure, you couldn't find it or report on improving trends, one way or another, say, for the Dura Refinery or the Mussayab power plant (both near Baghdad).
If you wanted to get a list of electricity projects that have been approved, funded and the percentage completion, you'd be s.o.l. The last report from USAID on its website is from January, 2007.
BUYING ELECTRICITY AND THE IRANIAN CONNECTION
In 2005, the increase had nothing to do with Iraqi Reconstruction, so what's the "good news"?
- "The rise in power supply of over 1,000 megawatts has come from an extra 500 megawatts generated by hydroelectric power after Turkey increased water flows from the Euphrates River to Iraqi dams while imports from Iran, Turkey and Syria added at least 350 megawatts in July."
- The forecast rise to 6,000 megawatts in August would come mainly from a doubling of imports from Iran to 200 megawatts and a similar jump in Turkey's exports to around 300 megawatts.
- New deals signed earlier this month in Tehran will make Iran the country's leading supplier by next summer, Shalash said.
[who knows if these ever got signed, but 6,000 is almost a 50% increase from the recent average levels, so it "n.e.v.e.r. h.a.p.p.e.n.", right?]
- Rehabilitation of major power plants of Mussayab, Nassiriya, Baiji and Baghdad's Dura would be completed by year end [2005].
- An extra 500 megawatts will come on stream later this year from a 10 unit gas turbine plant constructed near the city of Mussayab which was originally due for completion in June 2004. [If it did, 500 came off somewhere, 'cuase the output chart is flat-to-down ...]
- The delay in constructing the plant explains how bureaucracy and high security costs have eaten a major chunk of $5.6 billion allocated by the U.S. for electricity projects, Shalash said.
- The Iraqi official criticized local councils in some parts of the country who were intentionally drawing more electricity at the expense of other less endowed regions.
- "We warned the local councils and governors several times but they are not cooperating with us," he said. "They try to get more electricity than their share and are affecting other regions and they even lifted the equipment from our control division that organises the electricity supply schedule in Iraq."
IS IT A RED FLAG (OR A WHITE FLAG?) WHEN THE BEST INFORMATION COMES FROM THE OFFICE OF INSPECTOR GENERAL?
In 2005 and early 2006, audits by the Special Inspector General for Iraq (SIGR) forced a reassessment of what could be accomplished, with the number of possible projects scaled back to "300 of an initial 425 projects to provide electricity":
"We've had such a range of commentary, from pretty much everything going as well as it could to outright disaster," Barton said [co-director of the post-conflict reconstruction project at the CSIS in D.C.]. "This brings definition to the whole discussion, and in doing that it highlights many of the poor choices that have been made. It has that potential longer-term therapeutic benefit."If it had any therapeutic value, it appears to have been ephemeral. The SIGR reports in July, 2007, that 87% of funded U.S. commitments have been paid out, yet electricity levels are not significantly much higher.
In the bigger picture, it is deeply troubling that the reports with the most information about what is going on are from the Inspector General. Would you run a company by asking your audit group to constantly update you on what is honestly going on?
To add insult to that injury, it was a struggle to get them re-funded in the last go-round.
So, in the absence of evidence, I'm left with the conclusion that Rummy, Myers, Cheney, Bush, Condi - all of the crew, really, including McCain - who complained about the bad press must be interested in "good news anecdotes" out of Iraq.
BILLIONS MORE NEEDED, WHAT ELSE?
Iraq Far From U.S. Goals for Energy
$50 Billion Needed To Meet Demand
By Dana Hedgpeth
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, September 2, 2007; Page A01
Attacks have taken a huge toll on people as well as infrastructure. Wahid said he lost more than 1,000 Electricity Ministry employees this year, mostly engineers working on repair teams. Four hundred were kidnapped and killed; 300 were injured and 300 were kidnapped, he said.
