If Democrats nominate more candidates who hold conservative views on cultural issues, the party may be able to make inroads among evangelicals. Still, as long as the party’s fundamental attitude toward issues such as abortion and gay rights is what it is, Democrats would be much better off trying to lock up suburban moderates before they waste a lot of time trying to attract evangelical voters to their party.
I disagree. Why?
EVANGELICALS TO CHANGE
It may well be that mainstream evangelicals moderate their political views. The radical notion that Roe must be overturned might eventually be seen as extremist political wants. For a long time, even Republican strategists have been opining that "abortion", as a political issue, is nearing its end. Most of the GOP are not behind an abortion litmus test for judicial nominees (at least publicly). Many are compelled by the balance-of-liberties arguments of Justice O'Connor and also think that the practical restrictions/limits on abortion are pressed nearly as far as can be reasonably expected.
GAY RIGHTS: AN IMPASSE, BUT NOT INSURMOUNTABLE
I think that evangelicals will come around on gay rights, eventually, too. Even if they will be the last to celebrate or accept "gay marriage", that doesn't mean that partnership non-discrimination is out of reach entirely, in the meantime.
WAY-FORWARD POLITICS, COMMON CAUSE
Given that the largest evangelical group just came out with a human-rights based rejection of torture, the Democrats do seem to have at least prima facie inroads to evangelicals. Strategically, a practical alliance between right-of-center, "mainstream" evangelicals and belief-in-good-government progressives could color many states Blue and form a formidable coalition that could last a generation.
I cannot think of any obvious leaders on the Democratic side who could forge such an alliance, however. What's more, Nixon formed his transformative coalition around race and there isn't an obvious analog in today's politics, an issue to bind a coalition at the start.
link: Bootstrapping Andrew Sullivan
