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Sunday, September 2, 2007

Can Pakistan Ever Move Forward Politically?

THE COUNTRY LEADERSHIP SEEM DETERMINED TO MISS AN OPPORTUNITY

Unlike Iran, at least Pakistani politics is easy enough to understand.

Historically, it's the wealthy cronies against the populist cronies ("Mr. 10%"), dashed with an almost impossible-to-manage religious radicalism, that seems alternately fascistic and anarchistic ... and perhaps increasingly violent and self-organized.

Could it be that 'more democracy' in Pakistan will have the result of polarizing a country that desperately needs social cohesion, if it is ever going to more forward in a sustainable way?

IS BHUTTO NOT BEING GRADUALIST ENOUGH?

Sharif is on the path to confrontation. Does Bhutto need to mimic him? Is the ONLY winning ticket to run against Musharaff? The net result is that the stability of military dictatorship, and its benefits, get thrown aside during transition, rather than propagated for the benefit of the general welfare:

Sharif’s confrontation path is hazardous, but this option is in line with the anti-Musharraf mood of the politically active circles and civil society groups in Pakistan.

...in authoritarian and semi- or non-democratic systems, political changes are often unpredictable.

If the three main political players, Musharraf, Bhutto and Sharif, do not reconcile their divergent approaches to the future direction of Pakistani politics and society, Pakistan may face a major internal political crisis that can cause a total or partial breakdown of the political order.



Separately, a view of political violence (terrorism) on the march, and a counterreaction:

MINGORA: Public transporters in Swat district on Saturday received threatening letters by unidentified people, believed to be Taliban militants, asking them to remove “obscene” photographs and stop playing music in their vehicles or their vehicles would be blown up.

The threatening pamphlets were delivered at the Matta Bus Stand here and the short warning for the transporters stated: “Stop playing music and remove obscene photos from your vehicles or face bomb attacks.” Unidentified militants on Wednesday blew up six music shops in Ishaq Market and partially damaged 20 nearby shops and three houses after distribution of threatening letters in the area warning the shop owners to stop the “un-Islamic” business.

Non-government organisations (NGOs) have already shut their offices in the region after receiving threatening letters, while representatives of pharmaceutical companies have stopped wearing trousers in the Swat Valley after the militants warned them to wear local dresses.