This Citi stuff?
For those with a long view, it's o.k. to dip a toe into the water, I think. There is not a "rush" - that's the good thing. Goldman sees "sell" because they think short term (and 33 is higher than 32, or whatever).
(It's seldom you get out ahead of the pack. Pat self on back.)
My guess - and it is a guess - is that the big money won't get behind the financials until January or somewhat later, which means that between now and the end of the year the little guys can have a rare chance to act first.
Other notes:
The Tier1 capital thing - red herring, in my view.
The $2 Trillion credit-crunch dollar impact from the $200 bn prime-mortage write-offs? Could happen, but it will probably be spread out, in ways that may not dislocate growth. Some part of a "crunch" isn't the end of lending, it is lending at a higher price.
The housing market stuff - serious. Keep an eye here.
The dollar - the fear of inflation over the weak dollar is probably small compared to the worries about $90 oil.
Monday, November 19, 2007
Yes, Virginia, There is a Bottom
