Joint Econ Committee issues a report, "War at Any Price".
Selected tables below.
NOT JUST DOMESTIC PRIORITIES
Understandably, the authors show the tradeoffs in terms of domestic priorities. Another framework is to show them in foreign policy tradeoffs.
Understandably, the authors show the tradeoffs in terms of domestic priorities. Another framework is to show them in foreign policy tradeoffs.If you take an annual amount of $2,300 for what the average Iraqi might earn (that's high), then one might come out estimating that we have spent an entire lifetime of working-age income - 40 years - for each Iraqi (including the estimated 2 million who have fled). Couldn't we have bought a LOT of change the old fashioned way with that kind of money? Maybe a half such a lifetime, if you take a lower estimate of cost.
THE NEXT STEPS
One thing to look at is how much the Bush economy has been bolstered by stimulative fiscal policy, not related to tax cuts; but the GWOT debt-spending. The rise in oil prices is a GDP drag, but the full effect of it may not have been felt because the incremental spending on "GWOT" is stimulative.
A QUICK LOOK AT THE ESTIMATES
Interest on Debt
I like that they have broken out interest to foreign owners, a refinement I should make. However, this economically relevant value, while not incorrect, masks a fuller, apples-to-apples comparison, which is something I'd rather not leave out of the numbers.
Requip the military
This report suggests the DoD has guessed at $40 billion for my TBA line-item of re-quipping the military. However, if you are watching the CRS, the DoD has changed its accounting rules in the past year, to let field commanders include in OEF/OIF operations figures items that were previously restricted to other budgets for wear-and-tear of equipment. In other words, this cost may be getting buried, right or wrong.
Oil Costs
Their estimate for "lost investment" is hard to evaluate. Comparing to my macro model, it is high using their figures, but even cutting it in half would still be $400 bn. However, I think the true oil lifting cost is a lot lower than they use.
THE COST OF NO-CUT, JUST-LET 'R-RUN
