Noteworthy signposts on the long road to democracy (long road):
Many of Algeria's problems [after the new parliamentary elections this week] are obviously unique to Algeria. But Algeria's difficult experience may have some lessons that can be applied to today's crisis in Iraq as well as to the question of democracy elsewhere in the Arab world, especially in places like Egypt where rule has long been entrenched by military-backed authoritarian regimes.
One lesson from Algeria is that while Bush and Iraqi politicians may raise expectations for "progress" and even "success," actually achieving stability in Iraq is likely to take years if not decades.
A related lesson is that it takes years to defeat a determined insurgency.
Another lesson is what Algeria expert Hugh Roberts calls "the failure of premature reform." Algeria was pushed into extreme crisis by the regime's decision to open the country to free elections in the late 1980s.
And, of course, the curse of oil:
The high oil price and resulting buoyant revenue have given the "distributive state" in Algeria a new lease on life. As a result, the regime’s capacity to co-opt opposition and buy social peace is high and the effective pressure for fundamental institutional reform is low.
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(btw, this smackdown of 'Cheney of Arabia' is a primer on how to abuse positions of privledge and the stuff for which journalists get garlands.)
