"She won the last debate" - no. She lost it, literally.
"The weather" - probably not or just slightly.
"The welling up" - probably neutral, both good and bad.
My thoughts:
Economy was number one issue. Clinton was the only one to be on the airwaves saying, "I'm worried that the economy is slipping into recession." [She has also been the only one visibly topical (sub prime crisis, etc.) - that may have had an impact.]
The town-meeting format works soooo well in N.H. It's really that simple.