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Friday, January 18, 2008

Bond Insurance Blowup and the Bush-Paulson Plan

Bush-Paulson plan getting "no" vote from the markets?
This is going to be one of those topics that abject free marketeers will be scrambling over, most likely. How could such a conservative part of the market for risk get over-run so quickly and easily?

Meanwhile, if the Bush-Paulson plan were "working", on its face, you'd think that, (a), lotsa people would be re-financing, which is pretty good for insurers and investors; and, (b), all but speculators would be getting saved from default, right?

Yet, the market's collective judgment on that - apparently - is that the cash flows just aren't going to be there... What else could it be? The yawning inadequacy of the capital base for the risks many undercharged for, so clearly in retrospect, has been known since mid-December.

Meanwhile, there is no such thing as a "run" at a bond insurer, I don't think, as there is with a bank. Losses, if any, are spread out over a long period of time.