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Friday, January 11, 2008

Swing-State Redux: Eyes on Prize Florida, Part II

CHANGE TO BELIEVE IN

I don't like all of Obama's policies, but here is one that I believe in: his message on Cuba.

Of course, AS has 1,000 posts on Hillary today, so you'd never know that there might be something to vote for. (AS might even inspire a reverse-Bradley affect, in which people are so afraid of the punditry, they tell pollsters they are *not* voting Hillary, when they are.)

A lot of the reasons are below, but, from the few Cuban Americans I know, there is a lot of psychic energy bound up with Castro. When he goes, that may be the time for ... something new, that isn't an embrace of communism, but isn't so ridiculous, either. Besides, with a strident Venezuela and Iran at their side, we could use a softer approach, right?

A CLEAN BREAK

Steve Clemons at Washington Note has the full history of the policy opening, starting with Chris Dodd (remarked here months ago, now).

You can watch Obama come out for "Libertad", here:



TIME does its story as follows:

Conventional political wisdom in the bellwether state of Florida has always focused on Cuban-Americans, especially those influential exiles who take a hard line against any U.S. engagement with Fidel Castro's Cuba. Cross them, says the presidential candidate handbook, and say adios to the Sunshine State's 27 electoral votes.

So why would Barack Obama — who is scraping to keep up with Hillary Clinton for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination — ignore that seemingly golden rule? Why, in a Tuesday op-ed piece in the Miami Herald, would he challenge the Cuban-American elders and call for dismantling President Bush's hefty restrictions on Cuban-Americans making visits and sending money to relatives in Cuba?

Maybe it's because Obama knows a new conventional wisdom may well be taking shape in the state — one that could actually make his declarations this week an asset when Florida holds its primary election next January.



The full party line breakdown is given by Council on Foreign Relations.


The ground-up view is pretty tough - you know you have your finger on real change when ... :

Mr. Sopo is discovering that being a fan of the Illinois Democrat in Miami's Little Havana can mean a break from old friends and acquaintances.

"If you deviate slightly from what is the traditional hard-line approach to the Castro regime, they will publicly call you a communist on local radio and TV stations, humiliate you and your family, and accuse you of terrible things," the 24-year-old says. - WSJ Online