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Friday, January 11, 2008

Swing-State Redux: Eyes on Prize Florida, Part I

"A NOUN, A VERB, AND 9/11"

Giuliani's work building up a name for himself among Florida's voters is working. They like him on terrorism best and on the economy. (CNN reports, 11/28/2007)

Except, by December, the voters in Florida had all changed their minds (sound familiar?):



Those figures reflect a stunning change in the race since November when Rasmussen Reports polling found Giuliani on top with 27% followed by Romney at 19% and Thompson at 16%. Since then, Huckabee has gained 18 percentage points and Romney picked up four points. Giuliani is down eight, Thompson is down seven, and McCain is down four.

They could all reverse again, if you believe some surveys suggesting independent voters still undecided.

Biden's phrase shows what? That you can pre-empt the ability of people to create a name, and it's cheaper than trying to do it later on. (AS notes the smears, but doesn't deliver this broader reason why or estimate how much it could affect his electability ...).

GOD AND MAN AT ... WAR

The Florida electorate is a real tug-o-war, the little that I know about it. The GOP is anxious to find ways to divide the electorate. A 'gay marriage amendment' appears to be at least one thing they are betting on to show off their (misguided) "Christian Values":

"Thirty percent (30%) of Florida’s Likely Primary Voters say that a candidates faith and religion are Very Important voting considerations. Another 30% say they are Somewhat Important"

A 'NO VOTES' SHOWDOWN ON OTHER SWING ISSUES - IMMIGRATION AND HEALTHCARE

Healthcare rates high, for both party's constituencies; but could immigration be more emotive?

I have no idea how to weigh these issues against each other for Florida.

As I understand it, FL and MI don't offer the DEM candidates any delegates, based on a DNC penalty for holding their primary ahead of Feb 5th.

CANDIDATES SAVORING FLORIDA JUICES

Florida could be more of a showdown than Michigan.

At least one candidate is on the move: 'Huckabus' sets GPS for Florida

Guiliani is gunning for an endorsement from the State Governor and using Federal tax dollars to do it (!):

Rudy Giuliani has endorsed the creation of a national catastrophe fund for insurance, which is a big deal to Gov. Charlie Crist.

Giuliani also has launched an advisory board including Pinellas Sheriff Jim Coats, County Commissioner John Morroni and Hillsborough Commissioner Rose Ferlita. (details in jump.)



You can track your favorite candidate here: Do you know where your candidate is?