A LOOK AT THE SWING STATES
The betting on how the electoral college will go for the swing states (below). The returns from Iowa seem to have had an impact.
I haven't noticed big moves in the Senate races. The Sununu contract appears to be under some pressure, but not down to new lows or anything (many of the Republican senator contracts are bid up, slightly, since the end of the year, including Allard).
| State | DEM | REP | Chng Wk. Dem/Rep | Bid-Ask. Dem/Rep | Elec. Vote |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| •Michigan‡ | 80 | 10 | 5/-5 | 5%/100% | 17 |
| Pennsylvania* | 77 | 15 | 0/-0.1 | 7%/60% | 21 |
| •Oregon‡ | 75 | 15 | 0/-5 | 11%/67% | 7 |
| •Wisconsin‡ | 75 | 15 | 5/-5 | 13%/67% | 10 |
| Minnesota* | 75 | 15 | 5/-5 | 13%/67% | 10 |
| New Hampshire* | 70 | 20 | 0/-0.1 | 7%/50% | 4 |
| •Ohio‡ | 70 | 25 | 9.9/-5.1 | 7%/20% | 20 |
| New Mexico | 60 | 35 | 0/-4 | 8%/23% | 5 |
| Iowa* | 55 | 35 | -0.5/-5 | 18%/29% | 7 |
| Florida* | 48 | 50 | 2.9/5 | 4%/20% | 27 |
| •Missouri* | 46 | 45 | 1/0 | 20%/22% | 11 |
| •Colorado | 45 | 45 | 4.9/-5.1 | 22%/22% | 9 |
| •Nevada | 40 | 50 | -5.1/4.9 | 25%/8% | 5 |
| •Virginia*‡ | 35 | 55 | -10/9.9 | 29%/5% | 13 |
| •Arkansas*‡ | 30 | 60 | 9.8/-13.1 | 33%/17% | 6 |
src: intrade.com
