"FOR SOME TIME"
When we went into Iraq, no one asked how we were going to get out of it. Then, as now, urgency was a key element, in casting aside constructive doubt.
As long as I see nondescript elements in key places, like "for some time", rather than scenarios based on hardened assumptions, you have to ask, how deliberately are we moving forward?
From the exceptionally competent new/old director of the CBO:
The scale of those [bank] losses suggests that many financial institutions and markets will remain deeply troubled for some time, which will keep borrowing exceptionally costly for many borrowers and thereby dampen spending by households and businesses. p.
...
Economists and financial experts widely agree that the financial markets are likely to remain severely stressed for some time..p. 6
...
In 2007, about 1.6 million foreclosures were initiated; the first nine months of 2008 alone saw 1.7 million foreclosures. Moreover, with house prices likely to continue to fall and with the recession pushing down family incomes, analysts expect the number of foreclosures to remain high during the next two years. p. 17
...
Economists and financial experts widely agree that the financial markets are likely to remain severely stressed for some time..p. 6
...
In 2007, about 1.6 million foreclosures were initiated; the first nine months of 2008 alone saw 1.7 million foreclosures. Moreover, with house prices likely to continue to fall and with the recession pushing down family incomes, analysts expect the number of foreclosures to remain high during the next two years. p. 17
Other, important dimensions of the problem.
(CBO expects that the prices of houses will decline by another 14 percent, and some forecasters in the private sector are looking for even bigger slides.) Some analysts are now suggesting that the prices of houses in some markets are back to or near their fundamental values; however, another possibility is that prices could overshoot on the downside by 10 percent or more. p. 17
The costs associated with the rescue of Japan’s financial system have been estimated at about 25 percent of GDP. p. 9
By the middle of last year, an estimated 10.5 million borrowers had a total of about $850 billion in negative home equity with an average amount of more than $75,000. Those borrowers do not have the necessary equity to qualify for a refinanced loan with a private lender. p. 19
CBO estimates that the value of the GSEs’ [FreddieMac and FannieMae] mortgage loans and guaranteed assets falls short of their liabilities by about $200 billion (on a present-value basis). p. 23
And from the scoring of H.R.-1, the recently passed bill:
Title I would appropriate $248 million for Inspectors General for several agencies and the Government Accountability Office. CBO estimates that almost all of those funds would be spent by the end of fiscal year 2010.
