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Thursday, January 29, 2009

Back to Iraq: The Known Unkowns

"FOR SOME TIME"

When we went into Iraq, no one asked how we were going to get out of it. Then, as now, urgency was a key element, in casting aside constructive doubt.

As long as I see nondescript elements in key places, like "for some time", rather than scenarios based on hardened assumptions, you have to ask, how deliberately are we moving forward?

From the exceptionally competent new/old director of the CBO:

The scale of those [bank] losses suggests that many financial institutions and markets will remain deeply troubled for some time, which will keep borrowing exceptionally costly for many borrowers and thereby dampen spending by households and businesses. p.
...
Economists and financial experts widely agree that the financial markets are likely to remain severely stressed for some time..p. 6
...
In 2007, about 1.6 million foreclosures were initiated; the first nine months of 2008 alone saw 1.7 million foreclosures. Moreover, with house prices likely to continue to fall and with the recession pushing down family incomes, analysts expect the number of foreclosures to remain high during the next two years. p. 17

Other, important dimensions of the problem.