It was not a good week in Afghanistan.
Violence is at an all time high. The first female suicide bomber struck this week. Massive suicide bomb attacks in Kabul in the past week.
The head of NATO suggested that the "hold" portion could not be handled by Afghani military hands, yet. (A bit of comedown from the hopes just in July).
This implies whack-a-mole, as the Coalition Forces alone appear unable to hold all ground cleared. Ceding ground (or worse, ceding the same ground) has profound implications, not just for the overall strategy, but for the whole idea of who is going to fight the struggle within Islam and how. Spain will not send more troops.
The Taliban won't negotiate peace, but are following their own odd rules of engagement, which include "mistakenly kidnapping" and doing other battlefield negotiations.
The goals of "build" remain elusive on some reports (comprehensive reporting, is, as ever, not available to mere citizens). Some places report switching opium for marajuana. Women struggle under the Taliban campaign of intimidation. In an area with abjectly low literacy rates, the President is indicating that schooling is the answer to mere religious instruction, although the timeline for such developments is very long, as measured by ISAF deployments.
details here.
Update: An on-balance assessment, one year on
ONE year ago today NATO took full control of security across the whole of Afghanistan under the banner of ISAF
WHAT'S GOING RIGHT
- • British and US forces committed to Afghanistan for the long haul. The US has a 15-year plan for Afghanistan.
- • Millions of exiles have returned - a display of faith in their country's future.
- • Osama bin Laden and the Taleban are supported by no more than 10 per cent of the population.
- • NATO troops are winning when battle is joined, making progress in eliminating the Taleban's battlefield leadership.
- • Improved infrastructure is helping the Afghan economy to recover and is also making it easier for NATO to confine Taleban insurgents to the mountains. [mixed]
- • As US and UK withdraw troops from Iraq, more become available for Afghanistan. [UK, maybe; US, ???]
- • Hamid Karzai's government is relatively stable, although concerns remain about the past of some politicians and links to the drugs trade.
- • As losses mount for the militants, talks between Mr Karzai and the Taleban become more likely. [dubious]
- • Violence has increased by 30 per cent this year.
- • Suicide bombings have more than doubled. So too has the use of improvised explosive devices.
- • The Taleban is learning from insurgents in Iraq.
- • Mixed performance from NATO troops. Too many countries unwilling to commit troops to actual action.
- • Afghan economy still heavily dependent upon poppy production - which helps fuel the insurgency. Poppy-eradication efforts have had mixed success.
- • The Kabul-Kandahar road - the most important in the country - is still too dangerous to travel safely, for example 23 South Korean missionaries were kidnapped along the route this July.
