AS writes:
Beats me.
Awww. Without even looking, we know what is happening in Iraq: ethno-sectarian struggle for power and resources.
So, follow the money, right?
Based on a skim of the events, there was smuggling of oil going on and regional "security" / extortion rackets. The central government is feeling strong enough to say, "hey, we have the say-so, not you criminals."
The rest is noise (except maybe whether the imposition of law is something welcomed by al-Sadr, but also something that he simply cannot publicly support).
It's a positive development, so long as the government hasn't over-estimated its strength.
While some may look at this and see only group-versus-group, cut one way or the other, what is really going on is the ability of Iraq to occupy itself, to have "one gun", as the Israelis are wont to say, from time-to-time.
When the central government is strong enough to conscript people successfully, you'll know that they have "arrived" in spades, perhaps. I suppose there might be some other metrics, but that one just leapt to mind.
