"Victory" Enough for All?NO BENCHMARKS, PLEASE, WE'RE JUST THAT GOOD
King George "The Decider" issued yet another in a series of Administration pronouncements that Iraq has just about turned the corner toward ... "Victory!".
Here is what we get from our supposed "commander":
A year later, one year later, after we sent additional troops into Iraq, the situation has changed markedly. With security improving, local citizens have restarted the political process in their neighborhoods and cities and provinces. Let me give you an example. In Ramadi, tribal sheiks who led the uprising against al Qaeda are now leading a revival of politics. With the support of our PRTs, Ramadi now has a fully-staffed mayor's office, and neighborhood councils have formed. Judges are presiding over courts and restoring the rule of law.That's right, five years into a conflict that our own generals say will last another five years, all we've got is an ad-hoc story about ar-Ramadi (and the soccer game indicator...).
ANOTHER GOVERNMENTAL SPIT-SHINE
Seriously, we are running all of U.S. foreign policy based upon snippets of data, little "stories" that supposedly represent something larger, when no evidence is presented to back up this long series of trust-me claims. How long ago was it that Tal Afar was the beacon? Mosul was supposedly cleared by The General himself, yet we are told there is more hard fighting to do there.
The only thing that has changed in the average citizen's information flow, is that we no longer have to suffer the Rumsfeldian pronouncements that amounted to all-is-going-according-to-plan ("we always said that...", "we expected that..."), except where and when Democracy is untidy.
Today, it's pretty plain that the US's foreign policy is on a best-efforts basis, nothing more. If the situation in Iraq actually supports only that, then really how much "progress" can we be happy about?
THE GOP CLINGING TO THEIR FAILED CEO
Where are our percentage completion estimates for major projects? For small ones? Where is the update from the only people who seem to have a head for actually managing the details?
No one wants to nay-say improvements. But what does it mean when we hail even expected improvements as if Iraq and Iraqis are America's prodigal sons? What does it mean when the major emotion associated with "success" is mere relief?
Same for "failure". It doesn't serve to have rosy views of the upside, nor do we need panic assessments the downside (including "the stakes" and al-qa'ida's Sword of Damocles that hangs over American non-patriots who don't toe the GOP line verbatim).
NATION BUILDING SO LONG WE NEED ACTUARIES - WHO IS "THE ENEMY" THIS YEAR?
No where do we get an idea that the effort is coming to a 60% completion. All we get are a foreshadowing of the "next steps" and the factors that apparently can forestall the "success" of even the mighty, like King George (viz., Syria, the PKK, Iranian influence, al-qa'ida).
The only thing that has changed here is the face of the paper enemy that the USG is fighting today. Why hasn't King George contained or controlled for all of these elements? "Victory", afterall, he pronounced to us, was assured.
"2008 is the year of reconstruction", Bush quotes one Iraqi official. Yet, by all sober accounts, 2008 is the year of fighting corruption, perhaps both in Iraq and in Afghanistan. Yes, America has deployed almost it's entire fighting force, with progress leading to re-deployment out of there contingent on stomping out corruption in the mid-east... (and drugs in Afghanistan). These are worthy goals, but ... it's really quite expensive to be World Policeman, yes?
ONE THING SETTLED, AT LEAST
At the time of the last National Reckoning, no one had a definitive answer to a chicken and egg sort of question: does security need to come before reconciliation, or does reconciliation need to come before security.
Like all things in the 'real world' of human interaction, the answer, based on what little we know about facts on the ground in Hobbsian Iraq, is "it depends".
There appear to be small pockets (i.e. neighborhood level) where security has produced rapprochement, alongside the realization that Iraqis themselves are destroying their country.
Yet, it seems plain also that many deeply-seated power struggles remain unresolved by peaceful means, festering, perhaps ready for one or the other party to reach into a bag of "revolutionary" tricks (a.k.a. violence).
"Overwatch" is still years away, although true facts on which to base a judgment are ... classified, for our protection, no doubt.
