TROOPS MUST STAY IN IRAQ FOR ORDERLY WITHDRAWAL, BASCIALLY
The most significant finding from CNN's youTube Democratic Candidate expose is non-partisan.
It will take at least a year to redeploy 160,000+ troops, associated 'protected persons' from Iraq, and the huge army of contractors, without extraordinary measures. A brigade maybe a brigade-and-a-half a month, according to Hillary.
To me, this means that the April, 2008, hit-the-wall on consecutive deployments is a myth. The military under Bush-Cheney must be expecting additional tours, if not extended tours. Frankly,
Accordingly, I think it is highly probable that Bush has an ipso facto wartime authorization until the end of his term.
With no way around, the Dems will have to get over that bitter pill, in all probability.
The GOP are into what appears to be a well planned endgame to dump the Iraqi Stabilization Effort on the next executive, 'mission unfinished and outcome uncertain', at a minimum.
without it, there would be no way to conduct an orderly withdrawal, even. It's no wonder, also, that the GOP's R-ubberstamp Senators campaigned so forcefully against Senator Webb's amendment to require homestays, or "downtime", between deployments.With no way around, the Dems will have to get over that bitter pill, in all probability.
The GOP are into what appears to be a well planned endgame to dump the Iraqi Stabilization Effort on the next executive, 'mission unfinished and outcome uncertain', at a minimum.
Accordingly, I think it is highly probable that Bush has an ipso facto wartime authorization until the end of his term. With no way around it, the Dems will have to get over that bitter pill, in all probability. The GOP are into what appears to be a well planned endgame to dump the Iraqi Stabilization Effort on the next executive, 'mission unfinished and outcome uncertain', at a minimum.
Signals that the will-to-war is coming to an end in America - with the price paid, high enough; the chances given, sufficient to the day; the work uncompleted, but filled with honor - can probably shape the political battlefield to advantage in Iraq, but not 'end the war' abruptly or obviate other troop configurations, in which ongoing engagement is savvy (such as containing Iran during an Iraqi civil conflict, etc.).
This suggests that the redeployment costs will equal about what we are paying on an annual basis now, about $10 billion a month, or $120 billion for a year-long tidfib, give or take, at current surge levels (latest CRS figures).
The ongoing bill for the war is something the next President will also have to deal with. If it is a Democrat, there will have to be taxes and the GOP will be back to its old saw on that, even though they created the ongoing fiscal problem and have done nothing to boost net national savings.
DEBATE WINNER
...er, "Not Hilliary". (AS puts her as winner, but that's probably just his Simon Cowell way of pushing her forward so that folks vote against her ... Whatever the case, few would believe anything he says about her, at this point, and you know why ...)
As the frontrunner, she has everything to lose. Obama is clearly making strides as the truer agent of change, the outsider of Washington stalemate, as well as making a subtle play for African American voters (CNN handed him the questions to do it). Edwards picked off her support among women, with his "I'm good on women's issues too". Kucinich and Obama took firmly placed swipes at her positioning on Iraq, to which she didn't get to respond. Gravel painted her as a captive of PAC money and Wall Street.
It's a fair battle, though. She did come across as Presidential in a control-the-conversation way, prepared and competent to hit-the-ground-running.
MOST IMPROVED AWARD
Richardson's debating skills have not improved, sadly, despite his having some interesting opinions and viewpoints to share.
On the other hand, Obama is getting much, much better at controlling his message (I can see the political calculus shining through more clearly in his statements). Unfortunately, he has a way to go with his oratory. His style makes him look smart-but-green, still, as he strings together long, sometimes halting sentences with "uh's" and "and's". That won't do against Giuiliani, who always comes across as short, direct, and firm, even if often acerbic and haughty. Or, perhaps even Romney, who is a virtual ice-cream machine, when it comes to talky-talk.
PERSONAL NOTE
I had a twinge when Senator Clinton, in commenting on redeployment, stated that she 'had looked at this a lot'. She used similar language in her floor speech on the vote on authorizing Bush-Cheney to eventually let SecDef Don Rumsfeld loose on the world, without serious plans to get in-and-out quickly. I'm not sure what is at work, whether it is Hilliary herself or a contemporary sense of 'lost faith' in attestations of adequate considerations from politicians in general, but it's probably a fair dose of both.
Shopping for candidates, this year, is like shopping for shoes - what you want exactly is not on the market. I wish I could mush Edward's views (and passion - he was one of the few to actually get visibly angry on the stage) onto Obama's intellect and viability.
BEST VIDEO AND MEMORABLE MOVIE LINE
Shooter (2007) (Director - Antoine Fuqua, Screenplay - Jonathan Lemkin)
Bob Lee Swagger [Mark Wahlberg]: "Welcome to Tennessee, patron state of shootin' stuff up."
rest, here.
All-American, Only American:
